Global Economics Comment More Chinese Exports, Fewer Chinese Imports, Lower Global Inflation

Economics Research 26 July 2026 | 4:00PM BST

Global Economics Comment: More Chinese Exports, Fewer Chinese Imports, Lower Global Inflation

n Chinese exports to non-US DMs have grown rapidly since the pandemic, Megan Peters | reflecting both trade reallocation away from the US and overall export strength. Goldman Sachs International At the same time, Chinese imports from the rest of the world have pulled back amid an increased push for self-sufficiency. In this Global Economics Comment, we check in on how these shifting trade patterns are affecting inflation. n Leveraging a harmonized cross-country trade-inflation panel, we find that each 1pp increase in Chinese exports to other countries (as a share of total consumption in the recipient countries) since 2024 is associated with a 0.5% decline in goods prices. On average, we estimate this channel has lowered goods prices by 0.6% across non-US DMs so far. n Using the same harmonized panel, we find that for a country-product pair with complete import dependence, a 1pp decline in China’s share of global imports of that product would lower prices by 1.3%. This channel implies a modest incremental drag of around 0.1% on realized goods prices. n Combined, our analysis suggests that these dynamics have lowered goods prices by 0.7% across non-US DMs over the last two years—corresponding to a 0.1-0.2pp drag on annual headline and core inflation in DMs—with larger effects in Japan (1.1%) and the Euro area (1.0%). We expect these effects to build moving forward, both because realized trade shifts will take time to fully pass through to consumer prices, and because our China economics team expects the current account surplus will continue to widen.

More Chinese Exports, Fewer Chinese Imports, Lower Global Inflation

China’s exports to non-US DMs have grown rapidly since the pandemic, while China’s imports from the rest of the world have pulled back amid an increased push for self-sufficiency. We have previously argued that increased goods supply from China should exert a meaningful disinflationary impulse across DMs, especially in Europe (as highlighted by our European economics team). In this Global Economics Comment we check in on how these shifting trade patterns are affecting inflation to date.

Exhibit 1 shows that China’s nominal exports to non-US DMs have grown around 20% since 2024, whereas exports to the US have dropped sharply amid ongoing trade tensions. While part of the increase in exports to other DMs likely reflects trade reallocation, overall export growth has also been robust despite the pullback in US demand.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Goldman Sachs Global Economics Comment

Exhibit 1: China’s Total Exports Have Grown Rapidly Despite a Pullback in the US

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

In addition to the rapid growth in China’s exports, China’s imports from other countries have undershot their pre-pandemic trend across a range of products (Exhibit 2), reflecting an ongoing push by Chinese policymakers to increase self-sufficiency.

Exhibit 2: Chinese Import Growth Has Undershot Its Pre-Pandemic Trend

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

These trade shifts should put downward pressure on DM prices via two channels. First, increased Chinese exports should directly increase supply and lower consumer prices in recipient economies. Second, lower Chinese demand for imports from the rest of the world should free up supply in global goods markets, providing an additional disinflationary impulse. Our previous review of the literature suggested that, on average, a 1% increase in foreign goods supply (measured as a share of overall domestic goods demand) lowers consumer prices by 0.8%.