Global Economics Wrap Up July 24, 2026

Economics Research 24 July 2026 | 2:25PM EDT

Global Economics Wrap-Up: July 24, 2026

Global Economics Joseph Briggs | 7/24/26 12:51PM ET Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n Renewed escalation vs. lower inflation: Andrew Tilton | o Risks to our oil price forecasts remain two-sided but on net tilted upward Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

following the recent re-escalation in the Middle East. Katya Vashkinskaya | o We estimate that the US economy grew at a trend-like pace of 2¼ % in H1, Goldman Sachs International but H2 is likely to look softer as consumer spending slows. Jessica Rindels | § A potential slowdown in the AI boom also poses a downside risk to Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC consumer spending via equity wealth effects. Sarah Dong | o With underlying job growth running at 73k, we think the labor market is Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

well-balanced but expect the latest drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2% to reverse in coming months because it was driven by a suspiciously large drop in participation. o US inflation news has improved, and we expect the temporary drivers of core PCE inflation to subside next year. § Elsewhere, core inflation in the G10 ex-US has continued to trend down this year and now stands at 2.1%. o Our Fed call remains below market pricing and we continue to expect the FOMC to hold through year-end. § The broader question is how the FOMC will steer market expectations whenever policy does need to be adjusted in either direction, especially if changes are made to existing communications practices. o We also have dovish views on the ECB and particularly the BoE. o The lower-than-expected 4.3% Q2 GDP print confirms that Chinese growth has slowed this year, and imports and retail sales have stagnated despite continued strength in exports. n DM manufacturing suppliers’ delivery times remain elevated in July flash PMIs: o The DM composite flash PMI rose by +1.6pt to 52.8 in July, reflecting rises in both services (+1.9pt to 52.6) and manufacturing (+0.1pt to 53.2). o Manufacturing suppliers’ delivery times eased in ex-US DMs but remain near all-time highs.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Goldman Sachs Global Economics Wrap-Up

o The DM input price PMI fell by -3.3pt to 68.4 for manufacturing and rose by 0.4pt to 62.4 for services; the DM output price PMI fell by -1.6pt to 59.6 for manufacturing and rose by +0.6pt to 56.6 for services.

US Economics 7/24/26 11:47AM ET

n We previewed the new Fed task forces, the criticisms Warsh has made, what the task force leaders might recommend, and what the FOMC might accept: o Communications: We think the FOMC would probably see getting rid of the Summary of Economic Projections entirely as too large a step away from transparency. § It could modify the SEP by, for example, no longer publishing the median projection to avoid seeming to endorse it. o Balance sheet: We see little support for abandoning the ample-reserves framework and consequently only limited room for regulatory and supervisory changes to shrink banks’ demand for reserves balances and the size of the balance sheet. o Data: While there is broad support for incorporating alternative data sources, they often fail to meet three requirements for high-quality economic statistics. As a result, they are unlikely to fully replace the official data. o AI, productivity, and jobs: Most Fed officials will likely be skeptical that monetary policy decisions today should be influenced by a forecast of how AI will affect productivity growth in the future. o Inflation frameworks: The task force leaders will likely take a mainstream view of what drives inflation but might advocate taking another look at monetary aggregates. § The most immediate question is how to respond to inflation caused by supply shocks. n We track the breadth of high inflation across categories to monitor the risk that price spikes caused by supply shocks could make larger-than-usual price increases seem normal: o We watch both the weighted and unweighted shares of core PCE categories where six-month inflation is…