Global Economics Wrap Up September 4, 2026

Economics Research 4 September 2026 | 12:13PM EDT

Global Economics Wrap-Up: September 4, 2026

Global Economics Joseph Briggs | 9/4/26 9:00AM ET Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n AI adoption rises to 22.4% in August: Andrew Tilton | o AI adoption by firms rose by 0.9pp to 22.4% among US establishments and Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

is expected to rise further to 25.9% in the next six months. Katya Vashkinskaya | § The information sector is leading adoption at nearly 50%. Goldman Sachs International

o AI-related hardware investment in the US national accounts continues to Jessica Rindels | rise and now stands at $485bn annualized (1.5% of GDP). Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

o AI-related hardware shipments from Taiwan have grown by 76% since Sarah Dong | 2022 and US AI hardware net imports ticked up to $55.9bn in June. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n Lower future output in Canada in August final PMIs: o The global composite PMI rose by +0.9pt in August to 53.5, reflecting increases in both manufacturing (+0.2pt to 52.3) and services (+1.1pt to 53.7). o Canada future output expectations declined further last month as trade tensions with the US escalated. o The global employment PMI component rose by +0.2pt for manufacturing to 50.6 and by +1.2pt for services to 51.8. o The global manufacturing input price fell by -0.9pt to 59.8 and the output price PMI fell by -0.8pt to 54.3. n September DM central bank meetings kick off: o The BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, in line with our expectations, consensus, and market pricing, although guidance was hawkish. o The RBNZ raised the policy rate by 25bp to 2.75%, in line with expectations and market pricing. o Next week, we expect the ECB to hike the policy rate by 25bp to 2.5%.

US Economics 9/4/26 11:45AM ET

n Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162k in August and the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.1%:

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Goldman Sachs Global Economics Wrap-Up

o Payroll growth was revised up by 44k to 21k in July and by 11k to 31k in June. The three-month average of payroll growth stands at 71k. o The increase in payrolls largely reflected a rebound in leisure and hospitality (+62k) and local government education (+42k), after the two had declined by 75k and 52k over the previous two months, respectively. o The unemployment rate rose by 5bp to 4.14%, reflecting a 569k increase in household employment and a 683k increase in the size of the labor force. o Average hourly earnings growth was soft again, increasing 0.3% month over month in August and 3.09% over the last year. n The labor force participation rate rose by 0.2pp to 61.6% and now stands 0.5pp below the January level: o The January labor force participation rate was revised down by 0.4pp in February following the annual benchmark revisions which incorporated Census data with a long lag. o We estimate that roughly 0.2pp of the decline in participation since January reflects changes in the composition of the working-age population toward groups with lower participation rates. o We continue to see some evidence of residual seasonality in the participation rate of the 16-24 year-old group, which rose by 0.8pp in August and now stands at its January level. o Most of the increase in the number of people not in the labor force since January reflects college graduates over the age of 55 retiring from work. § The fact that this year’s decline in participation mainly reflects retirement of older, higher-income workers rather than an increase in discouraged workers makes the decline somewhat less concerning from a cyclical perspective. n A few Fed officials spoke this week ahead of the blackout period prior to the September FOMC meeting: o Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that “recent data suggest we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation” and that “if this continues… over the next two weeks, I would be inclined to support holding the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting.” § He added, however, that “if the incoming data for August show…