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GS Abbas - GS US Daily Download 17 Sep 2026 Ismail Abbas · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities Thu 17 Sep 2026, 2:14am ET

Chart of the day (Here) A continued sharp increase in bond yields could put pressure on equities Data since 1962 Macro GS Research: FOMC Recap - The F

A continued sharp increase in bond yields could put pressure on equities

FOMC Recap - The FOMC raised the funds rate by 25bp to 3.75-4% today. While the hike was widely expected, the meeting was more hawkish than we expected in a few ways. First, a 16-2 majority projected at least one more hike this year, and there were no dissenting votes against today’s hike. Second, the median funds rate projection remained quite elevated through 2029, and the median neutral rate dot rose from 3.06% to 3.25%. Third, Chairman Warsh described the hike as having “removed a dose of accommodation” three times. We now expect the FOMC to deliver a second 25bp hike in October, a change from our previous expectation that September would be the only hike. We think October is the most likely time for the next move because it is most natural to deliver hikes that the FOMC presented today as supporting “a timelier return” to the 2% target at consecutive meetings. We have kept our forecast for the terminal rate unchanged at 3.25-3.5% by adding to the September and December 2027 rate cuts we already expected a third 25bp cut in March 2028.

Actionable GS Research Overnight

Chevron - We hosted senior leadership from Chevron Corp (CVX) for a roundtable dinner on 9/14, followed by a full-day event on 9/15 featuring a Q&A with executives and a technology showcase. Participants from the company included but were not limited to Mr. Mike Wirth (Chairman of the Board and CEO), Ms. Eimear Bonner (CFO), Mr. Mark Nelson (Vice Chairman), Mr. Ryder Booth (Chief Technology and Engineering Officer), Mr. Clay Neff (President of Upstream), Mr. Andy Walz (President of Downstream, Midstream, and Chemicals), Mr. Jeff Gustavson (President of New Energies), and Ms. Jeanine Wai (Director of Investor Relations). We highlight four key takeaways from the trip: (1) Chevron is stacking high-potential exploration opportunities across Latin America, the Middle East, West Africa, and the Eastern Mediterranean, (2) strong global relationships give the company a distinct advantage to secure projects and help governments set competitive business terms, (3) management continues to develop and deploy new technologies, particularly in shale and tight, (4) cost and capital discipline supports a resilient business model built to withstand both commodity price cycles and geopolitical volatility.

Forgent Power Solutions - Raising estimates, order strength supports upside to FY27 growth guide. FPS delivered +4% F4Q adj. EBITDA vs. FactSet consensus driven by better-than-expected organic growth (+94% vs GS: +83%) led by powertrain solutions, which made up ~32% of total sales in the quarter. The book-to-bill in the quarter was 3.3x (vs 2.3x last Q) with bookings +376% year-over-year. F4Q orders of ~$1.5bn exceeded total revenues of $1.42bn in all of FY2026. The backlog now stands at $3.02bn, providing ample visibility for FY2027 and covering more than 90% of revenue guidance at current production-slot allocations. In addition, the company disclosed its first direct order from a frontier AI lab and an MSA with a hyperscaler. The AI-lab award involves medium-voltage transformers and switchgear for a campus expected to exceed 1GW, with potential additional demand measured in multiple GWs

Equities finished lower and continued this week’s losing streak after rallying to start before the FOMC this afternoon, where the Fed raised rates by 25 bps, as expected, to 3.75%-4.00%. Much more hawkish set of dots, with the plot showing one additional rate hike for 2026 and no cut next year. In terms of 26 distributions, only 2 participants showed just today's hike for year, 4 showed 3, and the rest had 2 for the year. Inflation projections higher than last time, suggesting the methodological changes coming up are not accounting for large downward revisions. Oil finished -3%, giving back much of yesterday’s gains, with positive headlines surrounding the…