GS Callahan US TMT quick hits 15 Sep 2026

GS Callahan - US TMT quick hits 15 Sep 2026 Peter Callahan · Goldman Sachs · Managing Director, TMT Sector Specialist Tue 15 Sep 2026, 1:34pm ET

Another choppy, lower-volume session as the NDX broke through its 50- and 100-dma to the downside (despite an ‘ok’ overnight session Asia) as Oil (~$109/brl) + Rates (10yr >5%) continue to weigh on risk appetite (see tightening financial conditions) and investors are navigating the increasingly tricky interplay between 12-mo Momentum pairs (down 7%+ yesterday) and 3-month Momentum pairs (up 2% yesterday)…

… investor feedback yesterday / today has been suggestive that investors broadly ‘understand’ the direction of the moves given some level of uncertainty introduced (even if many disagreed with the 'outcomes' that AI / Semi stocks were implying) …. that said .. the magnitude of the moves (both in Cyber to upside and in AI Infra to the downside) and the lack of defense was frustrating for many as positive catalysts have largely played out (ROIC commentary, model updates, product momentum, conference appearances, easing technicals)…. yet, AI Infra stocks still trade somewhat listlessly – creating a more muted risk appetite backdrop as “top down” pressures remain present (mostly macro + law of large numbers) .. further, it increasingly feels like the “calendar” is perhaps a governor on risk posture with 73 trading days left in the year – we get FOMC tomorrow .. then quieter micro window into qtr-end/preview season before 3Q earnings get back-stopped by US Midterm Elections ..

Top inbounds today .. strength in handsets (QCOM, SWKS?) .. is META played out or just getting going? .. why HDDs heavier (STX, WDC)? .. these HW names DELL / HPE ?! .. still no bounce in EDA names (CDNS, SNPS) … early set-up into MU earnings? … 10yr = 5.00%: interplay on Rates vs Tech? … thoughts on these ‘commerce’ names (UBER, BKNG, DASH, ETSY types)? …

“Inference Economy” … a key theme we’ve been writing about all Summer, but, what still stands out to me has been the continued support (read: multiple expansion) that the market is rewarding names with where a bull can believe that they likely grow through any potential capex gyrations (or, are just more immune from subtle rate of changs on ASPs or S/D) – said another way, the big themes of “data infra” or “security” are starting to feel a bit like the “capex trades” in 2024 or early 2025 where one had to be “directionally” right on the theme (memory, optical, compute), but, lessso on the specific winners/losers or share-gainers (at least for now). Admittedly some emerging debates on entry points and valuations, that said, it still feels like a “rising tide lifts all boats” framing for names tied to capex-light inference workloads.

Listen up .. GIR full team recap of last weeks’ GS Communacopia + Tech Conference (recorded yesterday) .. available on Marquee.

Consumer Check .. GS Consumer Conference is going on this week .. soundbites via Scott Feiler (gs consumer specialist) following day 1 .. 'Income & the Consumer: The K-shaped theme was in full effect yesterday, with companies levered to the top sounding a very positive tone (WSM), and those levered to

the bottom noting some relative weakness (Foot Locker). The overall consumer environment seems “steady,” with many winners and a few share donors. Feedback is more companies than not sounded a positive tone (W, BOBS, WSM, BJ, GCO, Gap brand, ARMK, etc). Should hear more of the same today, with some callouts of the K, but most generally resilient.'

FOMC preview … with the market now pricing in a hike tomorrow (94% ‘chance’, per WIRP screen), as GIR/GS Econ frames it: “The key question for the meeting is whether the median dot will show one hike or two in 2026. We expect a 10-8 majority to show one hike because some participants might be ambivalent about the first hike and some might want to avoid pushing market expectations any higher. But we see a risk of a majority for two hikes if more participants than we expect see a hike this week as a normal response to higher oil prices and AI demand and the start of a series of rate hikes.”

Charts + Stocks (… yes, moonlighting as a ‘technician’ here … ) ..

META .. noticeable…