GS Crook GS MORNING FOMC Recap BoE Preview BoJ Preview Daan Struyven Latest Views GCEM Symposium Replay

GS Crook - GS MORNING FOMC Recap BoE Preview BoJ Preview Daan Struyven Latest Views GCEM Symposium Replay 17 Sep 2026 Adam Crook · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities Thu 17 Sep 2026, 5:20am ET

Highlights from GS Research, Trading and Sales: 1) FOMC Recap, 2) BoE Preview, 3) BoJ Preview, 4) Daan Struyven’s Latest Views and 5) GCEM Symposium R

Highlights from GS Research, Trading and Sales: 1) FOMC Recap, 2) BoE Preview, 3) BoJ Preview, 4) Daan Struyven’s Latest Views and 5) GCEM Symposium Replay

1) US ECONOMICS (MERICLE) – September FOMC Recap: Adding an October Hike - LINK

The FOMC raised the funds rate by 25bp to 3.75-4%. While the hike was widely expected, the meeting was more hawkish than we expected in a few ways.

1/ A 16-2 majority projected at least one more hike this year, and there were no dissenting votes against today’s hike.

2/ The median funds rate projection remained quite elevated through 2029, and the median neutral rate dot rose from 3.06% to 3.25%.

3/ Chairman Warsh described the hike as having “removed a dose of accommodation” three times

We now expect the FOMC to deliver a second 25bp hike in October, a change from our previous expectation that September would be the only hike. We think October is the most likely time for the next move because it is most natural to deliver hikes that the FOMC presented today as supporting “a timelier return” to the 2% target at consecutive meetings. We have kept our forecast for the terminal rate unchanged at 3.25-3.5% by adding to the September and December 2027 rate cuts we already expected a third 25bp cut in March 2028. Additional hikes are possible but not our base case.

CHART 1: We Now Expect a Second Hike in October, but Both Our Baseline and Probability-Weighted Fed Forecasts Remain Less Hawkish Than Market Pricing

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2) UK ECONOMICS & STRATEGY (MOBERLY/COLE) - BOE Preview

UK ECONOMICS (MOBERLY): We think a hold is the clear base case at this meeting. Nothing in the recent committee commentary — including Bailey's TSC testimony last week — pointed to imminent tightening, and we think the MPC's incentive is to wait and see whether the recent run-up in energy prices sticks before acting. We look for a 6-3 vote, with Pill, Greene and Mann dissenting again; Lombardelli is the wildcard, so a 5-4 is a realistic risk but not our call. On communication, we expect the committee to

acknowledge that risks of material second-round effects have intensified, but to leave guidance unchanged and reiterate that a restrictive stance remains necessary — i.e. no strong steer on upcoming meetings, with some risk of a more hawkish tilt signalling tightening if energy pressures don't ease. On QT, we expect a £50bn pace, keeping active sales broadly steady and letting lower redemptions do the work. Looking further out, we have added a November hike: plugging the latest energy prices into our projections takes headline inflation close to 4% (3.9% in Q1), a level the Bank's own framework flags as the danger zone for second-round effects, and stronger recent growth data reduces the downside risk to activity…”

RATES STRATEGY (COLE): BoE today. The market doesn't think they're hiking. If there is anything to the logic that earlier hikes have an efficient impact on financial conditions, then maybe we shouldn't fully dismiss the idea that it is live. More importantly, back in July the majority (6-3) made a claim that financial conditions were sufficiently restrictive to get inflation down to target. There's a risk that the vote split today is 5-4, a slightly more hawkish split, but if it's 6-3 and the majority still makes this claim regarding financial conditions, I think we keep pricing November and don't re-price substantially. However, the most dangerous thing here for the market is if the BoE says that financial conditions are not tight enough, in which case we may be pricing 50bps for November.

Full Econ preview ahead of the meeting here.

CHART 1: We expect the MPC to hold today, and hike in November

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg

JAPAN ECON (OTA): We maintain our forecast that the next BOJ policy rate hike will be on September 18, by…