GS Johnstone GS TMT SPEC SALES US Telcos hit on AI spindown risk semicap shortages Adyen and Agentic TEF Zegona Meta

GS Johnstone - GS TMT SPEC SALES US Telcos hit on AI spindown risk semicap shortages Adyen and Agentic TEF Zegona Meta 18 Sep 2026 Sean Johnstone · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities Fri 18 Sep 2026, 3:29am ET

GS TMT SPEC SALES – Friday 18th September US equities finished higher overnight, with the S&P delivering one of its strongest September sessions and b

GS TMT SPEC SALES – Friday 18th September

US equities finished higher overnight, with the S&P delivering one of its strongest September sessions and broad participation across the index. AI and Mag7 were the main drivers, helped by a pause in rates and continued digestion of this week’s Fed hike. Momentum and AI-linked baskets also outperformed, with MegaCap Tech +168bps, Momentum +304bps and AI Semis +348bps. The market’s AI safety debate also appears to have shifted quickly: rather than slowing compute demand, the emerging view is that safer AI may require even more compute for testing, alignment and deployment.

Key stories remain centred on AI infrastructure and semis. Apple is reportedly considering a return to the server market using Nvidia NVLink Fusion with its own M8 Ultra chip, potentially benefiting Hon Hai, Quanta, Wiwynn and Inventec as ASIC demand grows across CSPs. Nvidia and Google are also partnering on an AI power- management alliance to support more flexible, grid-enhancing data centres, with Delta and Lite-On seen as potential beneficiaries. Separately, Jensen Huang said Nvidia’s chip sales volume could double next year on strong demand across GPUs, CPUs, networking and robotics, reinforcing the message that supply—not demand— remains the key constraint.

The downgrade away that will get attention today - Orange Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley…down 4% to start

While US telcos traded down (TMUS -5.5%; AT&T -2% & VZ -3%) on concerns on X chatter around Meta’s Muse and rival AI agent Instinct has focused on their new ability to make outbound calls to U.S. businesses, including negotiating phone and cable bills on behalf of users. This could become a risk for telcos because AI agents can wait on hold, escalate with support teams, switch users to cheaper plans, remove add-ons and claim credits at scale—potentially increasing pressure on ARPU, retention economics and customer-service costs. The same risk applies to European names as these AI assistant role out. But its NOT just telcos as other industries could also face pressure -industries most at risk are those with recurring bills, negotiable pricing, confusing add- ons, high churn incentives and customer-service friction—including cable/broadband, insurance, utilities, banks/credit cards, subscriptions, travel, healthcare billing, retail returns, auto leasing and gyms. If AI agents can persistently call, wait on hold, compare offers, cancel services, claim credits and renegotiate terms on behalf of customers, companies that rely on inertia or under-claimed discounts could face higher retention discounts, lower add-on revenue, more support volume and weaker pricing power.

PS – have been using Instinct for a week of so – its pretty impressive once you get past the hesitance of giving access to parts of your life (not brave enough on a bank account) – book restaurants, tennis courts, highlight must

read emails – its also picks up inaccuracies of emails and sources what is inaccurate.

On the back of this getting asked if we have if a Muse/Instinct at risk basket – have a look at

GSXUSWCH which focuses on industries where customer stickiness is driven less by product differentiation and more by the effort required to take action. Insurance, telecom, travel, subscriptions, marketplaces, and certain fintech businesses all benefit when customers do not continuously optimize their choices. If AI agents reduce the cost of comparison and execution, competitive dynamics could shift meaningfully, putting pressure on pricing power, retention rates and customer lifetime value.

AWAY FROM GS: Orange Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Allegro Raised to Overweight at Barclays; Soitec Raised to Overweight at Barclays; IFX Raised to Outperform at Oddo

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