GS Molavi Ruminations Macro Micro Markets

GS Molavi - Ruminations Macro, Micro, Markets 15 Sep 2026 Bobby Molavi · Goldman Sachs · Managing Director, FICC & Equities Tue 15 Sep 2026, 4:43pm ET

Already half way through September and the markets remain very challenging. Violent momentum swings, the Ai debate evolves but continues, a lot of geopolitical noise and the macro backdrop complicated (Oil, rates, yields).

The S&P went into June around 7600……and we find ourselves in mid Sept around the same level – but within that window we have had to deal with a huge amount of macro, micro, theme, factor and political noise. What has worked beneath the hood (and not worked) has evolved, and, at times, had extremely violent shifts…just look at 3m momentum vs 12 month momentum or Software vs Semis as just two examples of the rate of change in spreads in certain pockets of the market. Regional leadership also extremely violent. You look at the resets for Taiwan and Korea from the pre summer highs as perfect case and points around the risks of exuberance embedded in these markets.

Very simplistically we are dealing with a 10 year above 5%, Oil approaching $110, a Fed odds on to hike and the Nasdaq breaking below its 50 and 100 day moving averages. We see Momentum continue to struggle, we see AI winners digesting the weekend news…and we wait for the FOMC decision ahead of ys.

It feels like the market driven by 4 primary factors at the moment – Ai, Oil, Yields and Rate decisions/expectations…..

Slow the pace. Amodei’s essay calling for a slowing of frontier model improvement was swiftly followed by the likes of Altman, Musk and Hassabis lending support to the call to arms. A combination of agent swarm hacks , cyber threats, bio weapon concern, ‘whistleblower’ end of days warnings and the recent Hugging face attack prompting increased calls for regulation or at least independent evaluators. It feels like you can judge this through two lenses – one that is corporate and one that is more political. On the political side…this proclamation seems to have brought together the Ai leaders and the 'left' at a time when the politics of Data centres is getting more complicated (perhaps just a short term dynamic into Midterms), we have likes of Bernie Sanders making Ai his latest bug bear…and parts of the left globally calling for more restrictions, supervision and/or regulation. On the other side you have POTUS arguing that Ai is a critical imperative for national strength and security and development and innovation should not be restricted. On the corporate side, it seems there are two camps again. Those who argue this is self serving regulatory capture…and attempt by the winners to create a regulatory moat that anoints the winners and makes it hard for others (arguably Open weight in particular) to compete. There is also more debate about make a distinction between slowing and stopping and slowing not impacting spending....if that make sense. Yesterdays moves for the AI ‘winner’ complex globally were to be expected…..Chips/compute all coming under pressure....todays px action shows the anxieties live on.

Molecules. Oil now sits comfortably above $100 and with real risks of grinding higher. East west routes affected after Saudia Arabia's east west petroline that runs from Abqaiq to Yanbu hit last week. This line was built to move up to 7m barrels a day…it is also the only major export route that skips the strait of Hormuz. Reserves are precariously low, the flows through the straight and via the east/west Saudi pipeline are slow or stopped and the selling back into the market by those that had surplus (eg China) will start to slow. Tanker rates, war risk premia, insurance costs, oil price all move wrong way. All of this as we head into winter season and , for the consumer, as they navigate a multitude of other cost of living and inflationary pressures.

Yields. The global march higher for yields seem to relentless. A combination of inflation, refinancing, strong economy, evolving end buyer, deficit and outside pressures (relentless IG and AI related issuance) seemingly too hot to handle. Bessents attempts to ‘bully’ the market into submission thus far not working in spite of some fairly heavy…