GS Novak GS U.S. Industrials Materials price cost TSLA FTAI DHI

GS Novak - GS U.S. Industrials Materials price cost TSLA FTAI DHI 16 Sep 2026 Ryan Novak · Goldman Sachs · US Industrials & Materials Sector Specialist Wed 16 Sep 2026, 6:44am ET

Good morning – halfway home today. US futures steady early in pre-market trading with all eyes on the Fed this afternoon. Overseas markets showing relative strength with KOSPI up 137bps, Japan up 70bps and Europe more green with Eurozone industrial production flat and beating survey expectations. In commodities, crude taking a much needed breather down 2% with WTI $104, Brent $108. European gas bouncing again after a breather yesterday back up towards $82. 10-year just a touch below 5%, dollar steady and Bitcoin holding $76k after yesterday’s sell off.

Privo on the Fed: The 25bp hike is almost a non event now (priced at 93%)...the bigger question is whether the Fed validates the hiking cycle that has rapidly been put into the curve. Futures are now pricing roughly 3.5 hikes through next summer. GIR: "The key question for the meeting is whether the median dot will show one hike or two in 2026. We expect a 10-8 majority to show one hike because some participants might be ambivalent about the first hike and some might want to avoid pushing market expectations any higher." . Warsh has deliberately given very little forward guidance, so I’m more interested in the reaction function than the hike itself… does he frame this as a response to persistent underlying inflation, or as an attempt to stop the energy shock becoming embedded? My glass half full take interpretation is that the curve has already done a tremendous amount of tightening for them and in line with the house view the forward for Core PCE is quite constrained. I think regardless of what they say or what the dots do, there is more than enough hikes already priced (unless oil is going to 150).

Prime update: Industrials is among the most net sold sectors in the past month (and YTD), driven by short sales outpacing long buys – Electrical Equip and Machinery are the most net sold subsectors. Thematically, net allocation to US Power stocks (GSX1POW1) has fallen sharply to two-year lows.

Source: Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities and Prime Services data as of September 15, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results

On the micro, JBHT will be in focus this morning after signaling EPS to be down 5-10% sequentially implying earnings sharply below consensus on cost headwinds. This is the theme picking up with conferences ongoing whether it’s LECO (last week) lowering its expectations for incremental margins, CARR talking about a better than $6bn topline but reiterating earnings. Reach out to discuss more takeaways from presentations and feedback from meetings. FTAI out with new $500mm share repurchase program. SPXC announces acquisition of FIS Water for $410mm in cash – will be part of HVAC segment and operate within the cooling platform. $105mm in revenue. DHI out with additional $5bn share repurchase program with $53mm remaining on prior. Company now expects to repurchase $3.25bn this year. Watching DCO investor day this morning with LEN EPS post close.

GS events: 1. GVA CEO at 11am today – virtual meeting. 2. Will be marketing with Sue Maklari on all things housing Thursday 9/17 – we’ll do a small group lunch – let me know if you would like to join and chat housing. 3. Will be in Boston next week 9/23 – one spot left to meet – let me know if interested.

Couple reports from GIR to flag – our consumer conference ongoing:

TSLA – deliveries update – full note here: We believe that Tesla's 3Q26 vehicle deliveries are tracking below consensus (at 456K per Visible Alpha) and our prior view, and we lower our forecast to 435K from 490K. This is based on monthly and/or weekly sales datapoints for key regions (e.g. China, the US, and Europe), and we think that all three regions are tracking slower than we had previously expected. However, some regions filled via exports from China (e.g. SE Asia, South America, Australia) are showing strength on yoy basis, which we think will partly mitigate the weakness. However, typical seasonality in 4Q, plus the Model Y L ramp in the US and Europe, has the potential…