GS Quinn Energy Futures Brent (Oil) Buying Backtracks

GS Quinn - Energy Futures Brent (Oil) Buying Backtracks 17 Sep 2026 Robert Quinn · Goldman Sachs · Managing Director, FICC & Equities Thu 17 Sep 2026, 7:14am ET

According to Commitment of Traders, Managed Money Brent net positioning rose throughout most of August and early September, due mainly to downside reduction. Calendar spread changes reflected more bullish posturing. And alongside a potential new front in the conflict, longs arguably seized total control. This leaves some speculators vulnerable to signs that new supply outages are less than feared. Small unwinds already commenced. Notably the option market exhibits general complacency.

• According to Commitment of Traders, Managed Money Brent net positioning rose throughout most of August and early September, due mainly to downside reduction. From August 4th – September 8th, Managed Money bought in 4 of 5 weeks for a cumulative +$9.3bn, split 30% / 70% across long initiations / short covering. Resultant net length resided at an 88% 2-year rank. Recall the November contract surged +25.7% during this time frame.

• Calendar spread changes reflected more bullish posturing. With term structure tightening, Managed Money futures spreads outstanding increased, making the short-term correlation positive.

• And alongside a potential new front in the conflict, longs arguably seized total control. Over September 8th – 15th, Brent price and aggregate open interest (OI) jumped +11.1% and +$8.3bn respectively. Most gains occurred when Houthi military advances threatened flows through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and Saudi Arabia closed the East-West pipeline following attacks.

• This leaves some speculators vulnerable to signs that new supply outages are less than feared. Brent lost −2.7% on September 16th when sources said Saudi Arabia intends to return about half the capacity of its cross-country oil pipeline within days. Bulls already started unwinding; OI fell −$1.3bn.

• Notably, the option market exhibits general complacency. Brent 3 month normalized 25 delta put-call skew remained above the 1 year median as of the September 16th close.

Brent Managed Money Net Positioning vs Price

Source: Bloomberg, CFTC as of September 8th. Past performance not indicative of future results.

Brent Managed Money Futures Calendar Spreads vs Rolling 1-2 Calendar