GS TWIG Notes Special ‘Back to School’ TW(S)IG This Summer in Global Research September 4, 2026

Equity Research 4 September 2026 | 6:21AM EDT

GS TWIG Notes: Special ‘Back to School’ TW(S)IG: This Summer in Global Research - September 4, 2026

In this special end-of-summer TWIG, we highlight where our macro and micro views stand Chris Hussey | and the top thematic research published between Memorial Day and Labor Day that Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC remains relevant as we head into fall. Sarah Herr | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

macro issues we’re watching Econ 101: We dive into the growth/inflation mix around the world n Jan Hatzius reiterates our view that the Fed is very unlikely to hike rates at its September meeting or even again in this cycle in a Aug-16 note, “They’re Not Hiking.” Why? Growth is slowing. We forecast US consumer spending to dip to 1-1.5% in 2H26 (see also Ronnie Walker’s “Earnings Season Takeaways: Consumer Strength Before the Slowdown” (Aug-16) and Joseph Briggs’ “August 2026: Slower Spending Growth More Visible” (Aug-25)); the labor market may be worse than it looks, and core inflation remains benign. Later in August, Fed Chair Warsh sounded a hawkish tone at the central bank’s symposium (see “USA: In Hawkish Jackson Hole Debut, Chairman Warsh Says the Fed’s ‘Predominant Focus Right Now Should Be On Prices’”(Aug-28). But we continue to expect that core CPI and PCE inflation will print around 0.2% in August and that the FOMC will remain on hold. And lastly on Fed policy, Allison Nathan explored the merits and obstacles to less clear communication from the Fed in an Aug-19 Top of Mind, “Assessing a less transparent Fed.” n Beyond the US, Andrew Tilton highlights how the global tech boom and higher energy prices are driving divergent growth paths for Asia’s economies in “Macro mix still favors north Asia” (Aug-4). And Hui Shan highlights how growth is slipping in China as policymakers’ focus on technology innovation and high-tech manufacturing does not easily lend itself to a more virtuous cycle of stronger employment, income and consumption in “From Weak to Weaker” (Aug-21). While in Japan, selectively rising prices, changing inflation expectations, and a shift in policymaker’s tone since the US-Japan FX intervention all lead Tomohiro Ota to now forecast a BoJ rate hike at the September meeting in “Revising BOJ

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Policy Rate Forecasts: Now Forecasting September Hike” (Aug-25). n See also Santanu Sengupta’s “India Views: What Is Driving the Growth Resilience?” (Aug-30) and Goohoon Kwon’s “Korea’s Consumption: Young AI Boom Meets Aging Baby Boomers” (Aug-28). n In Europe, Jari Stehn highlights how reduced energy dependence alongside more growth-friendly fiscal policy, robust household finances, supportive financial conditions, and firm global growth—partly linked to the AI cycle—have all helped cushion the shock of a sustained energy crisis in “Europe: Sources of Resilience” (Jul-31). See also Niklas Garnadt’s “Germany—Growth Opportunities in Defense, Digitization and Electrification” (Jul-26) and Alexandre Stott’s “France—Modelling the 2027 Elections” (Aug-11). n Abhay Duggirala applies high math and surveys a range of studies to determine that inflation expectations are at most modestly elevated and not at immediate risk of unanchoring in, “Inflation Expectations After Five Years of High Inflation” (Aug-24).

Math 203 – Rates & FX: higher for longer rates meets lower for longer dollar? n George Cole and Will Marshal think that inflation and fiscal drivers of higher term premium will likely prove persistent, with steeper curves a durable feature of the rates landscape in “Shallow Relief For Long-End Woes” (Aug-27; see also “Q&A on Treasury’s Long-End Buybacks” Aug-25). And looking at FX…