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Sep 15, 20266 pages

From the report报告摘录US Oil Export Ban Misconception: Interior Secretary Burgum confirms export ban won't lower prices amid Iran war, citing retaliatory risks (e.g., CA energy imports) and refinery closures; diesel at record $6+/gal ahead…

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US oil export ban unlikely to lower energy prices, Interior secretary says U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said on Monday that a ban on U.S. oil or fuel exports would be unlikely to help lower energy prices for consumers amidst the Iran war. "We would consider an export ban if we thought that actually might lower prices, but that's not the case," Burgum told reporters at a G20 meeting on energy in Houston. Burgum, an appointee of President Donald Trump, said that bans on oil, gasoline or diesel exports could lead to retaliatory actions from other countries, which could hurt consumers in states like California, which depends partially on energy imports. "We stop exporting product, and then somebody says, 'We're not going to export to California,'" Burgum said. Burgum said that California already has shut several oil refineries, which over the long term has helped raise fuel prices there. "California already (has) the highest prices in the country for gas and diesel anyway, because of their policies, we wouldn't want ... to exacerbate that," Burgum said. Ahead of the midterm elections in November that will decide control of Congress, the Trump administration is running low on options to lower prices for diesel, which recently hit a record high above $6 a gallon and which is even higher in California, and for oil and gasoline. The White House is weighing how to use the Cold War-era Defense Production Act to expand U.S. refining capacity.

China's August oil throughput rises as fuel exports rebound amid Iran war China's official data showed oil throughput rose for a second straight month in August, supported by strong fuel exports after Beijing eased export restrictions in mid-July, analysts said. Higher oil prices during the Iran war, coupled with fuel-export curbs aimed at safeguarding domestic supply, reduced China's oil consumption and pushed refinery runs to COVID-era levels in June. China processed 59.07 million metric tons of crude in August, or 13.91 million barrels per day (bpd), up 11.2% from July but down 6.9% from a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. "Crude processing is being supported by exports and will likely remain so in the coming months, as higher oil prices will only curb domestic demand," said Emma Li, an analyst at Vortexa. China's August domestic crude oil production rose 0.8% year-on-year to 18.43 million metric tons, or 4.34 million bpd, according to the data. Beijing does not publish information about its reserves, but Reuters calculations, which add official crude imports to domestic output and subtract refinery throughput, showed a drawdown of 639,000 bpd in August, the second-largest since the Iran war began, after a draw of 936,000 bpd in June. Analysts said China's crude inventories were sufficient to safeguard domestic supply against import disruptions. However, restrictions on refined oil product exports could be reimposed if the situation in the Middle East escalates further. On the supply side, China's seaborne crude arrivals are expected to continue recovering in September and October, reaching about 8 million bpd, assuming no further disruptions, according to Vortexa. Arrivals in November and December remain uncertain, but Vortexa said refiners hold ample onshore crude inventories to cushion against any disruption to seaborne supplies. "Using inventories to ensure domestic supply is not a problem, but relying on them to boost exports is not sustainable. State-owned refiners are therefore still trying to buy crude to support higher exports, as export margins remain strong," said Vortexa's Li. If state-run facilities raise stock draws to 1 million bpd, inventories accumulated since 2025 would likely last until around year-end, according to Vortexa. "Following attacks on the Saudi (East-West) pipeline and the risk of further escalation in the Strait, fuel-export restrictions could be reimposed at any time after October," said Ye Lin, vice president at Rystad Energy. "If the government prioritises energy security, it should halt exports. But…

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