India Watch Monsoon Tracker In standstill mode

India Watch Monsoon Tracker: In standstill mode

August & season cumulative rainfall deficit at 13% 21 August 2026

After a near-normal start to August, rainfall momentum remained weak in the third week GEM Economics as well, taking month-to-date rainfall to 13% below normal. Consequently, cumulative Asia | India seasonal rainfall till 20 August also remained at 13% below normal. Given July-August Rahul Bajoria forms about 60-65% of seasons' rains, rainfall in these two-months matter for both India & ASEAN Economist BofAS India inflation and rural activity outlook. While July was at 3% above normal (better than IMD forecast), August so far continues to see scarce rains. With this, last week of August becomes critical to watch. IMD predicts 6% below normal rainfall for the second half of Smriti Mehra India Economist the southwest monsoon season (Aug- Sep). Meanwhile, the outlook for August is also BofAS India forecast at 94% of the LPA. Notably, IOD which had turned positive and can potentially offset some impact of the strong El-Niño conditions, is trending towards neutral again.

Progress in North & East India; pace softens elsewhere Glossary Third week of August saw diverse trend- with North and East India witnessing slight CPI: Consumer price index progress while elsewhere momentum softened. Central India saw scanty rainfall with deficit increasing further to 2% (vs 1% on wow basis). At the sub-division level, 20 IMD: Indian meteorological department reported normal rains (same as last week) while on a cumulative basis two more sub- WPI: Wholesale Price Index divisions reported deficient rains on WoW basis. Odisha was the only sub-division to yoy: Year over Year experience excess rains in week 12 of the southwest monsoon season. LPA: Long period average Reservoirs levels at -18% yoy; kharif sowing at -2 % yoy FY: Financial Year (April to March) While the rainfall remained weak, reservoir levels saw some improvement (storage SW: Southwest capacity at 64% of full use till 20th Aug vs 59% last week) but remained 18% below last DMI: Dipole Mode Index year’s level. Kharif sowing has picked up pace despite a slow start. Almost 92% of the IOD: Indian Ocean Dipole normal area has been sown till Aug 14 but remains slightly week compared to last year at -2% yoy. NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Dept Exhibit 1: Actual and Normal Rainfall in 2026 Rainfall in July picked up (3% above normal); progress slowed in Aug (13% below normal so far) of Commerce NW: Northwest Actual rainfall (mm) Normal WoW- Week on Week 20 W3: Week three 15

India Watch: July CPI review: Headline 10 steady, core sticky 12 August 2026

0 1-Jun 1-Jul 31-Jul 30-Aug 29-Sep Data till 20 Aug; Source: BofA Global Research, IMD, CEIC BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 5 to 6.

Exhibit 2: Southern Oscillation Index & Indian Ocean Dipole Index (ºC) Exhibit 3: Deviation from Normal rainfall (%): Monthly SOI shows signs of El Niño, DMI trending towards neutral IOD again Rain remained weak in third week of Aug at 13% below normal

SOI (ºC) IOD (ºC, RHS) Actual Positive IOD and El-Niño range Normal Deviation (% from 20 7 0.4 normal, RHS) Negative IOD and El-Niño range - -Jul 15-Jul 23-Jul 31-Jul 4-May 12-May 20-May 28-May 26-Apr 5-Jun 13-Jun 21-Jun 29-Jun 8-Aug 16-Aug 0 -50 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26

Source: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia; BofA Global Research Aug 20 data available so far; Source: BofA Global Research, CEIC BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 4: Progress of SW monsoon (cumulative rainfall till date) Exhibit 5: Spatial monsoon distribution (% deviation from normal) South & Central India in deeper deficit; elsewhere rains progressed 56% of all sub-divisions reported normal rainfall cumulatively till W12

5 Large Excess (60% or more) Excess (+20% to +59%) Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12…