ING Think low water levels and the german economy

THINK economic and financial analysis

Article | 4 August 2026 GERMANY

Low water levels are new setback for the German economy Record low water levels in the Rhine could shave 0.3 percentage points off Germany's GDP growth this year

A heatwave in Germany has pushed Rhine water levels to record lows

Some might know that I used to be, and still am, a passionate rower. Rowing on Frankfurt's Main River is not always a pleasure. High water levels and strong currents in winter, combined with commercial river traffic throughout the year, do not make it an ideal place to train. That is, except when water levels are low.

For rowers, low water levels mean calm currents, flat water and very little traffic. Against this backdrop, I have witnessed the effects of climate change during the 12 years I have lived in Frankfurt: fewer periods of high water in winter and longer stretches of flat water in summer. Unfortunately, what has been good for my favourite hobby has become a clear risk for the German economy: low water levels.

Why the Rhine matters for German industry Yesterday, my colleague Rico Luman wrote about the impact of low water levels in the Rhine and the consequences for supply chains. For Germany, however, the Rhine is not simply one transport option among many. It is a piece of industrial infrastructure around which much of German industry was physically built.

Roughly 285 million tonnes of freight move along the river annually, making it Europe's most

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important logistics corridor after the open seas. It carries about 80% of all goods transported on Germany's inland waterways, while some 600 vessels cross the Dutch-German border every day. The corridor connects Rotterdam directly to three of Germany's largest industrial clusters: Rhine-Ruhr steel, Rhine-Main and the Ludwigshafen chemical complex.

This is no coincidence. The plants were built along the Rhine in the nineteenth century to benefit from barge transport and access to process water, and they have remained there ever since. When the Rhine runs low, the impact extends far beyond supply chains; it strikes at the heart of German industry.

The Rhine's historic importance also means there are no real alternatives. Replacing a single barge can require up to 100 trucks or an entire freight train. And that's before taking into account Germany's well-known infrastructure challenges. Rail and road simply cannot provide a like-for-like substitute for Rhine transport. This is not to say that industry has not reacted to more frequent and longer periods of low water levels. Think of shallow-water barges and higher inventory levels.

Economic impact of low water levels On Monday, the water level at Kaub fell to 24cm, the lowest level since records began in 1880. The last record low was 25cm in October 2018. This highlights how severe the current situation is. Normally, periods of low water occur between September and November, not in the middle of summer. Yet current forecasts for the next two weeks show little rainfall, suggesting that conditions are likely to worsen.

Water level in Kaub (average per calendar week in cm)

As the Rhine is home to crucial industries, the economic impact of supply chain constraints, and a potential reduction in production is much larger than the Rhine's c.6% share of total