Inview September 2026

Equity resilience amid higher bond yields

InView SEPTEMBER 2026 | GLOBAL HOUSE VIEW & INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES

Welcome to the September edition of InView: Monthly Global House View. In this publication we consider significant developments in the world’s markets, and discuss our key convictions and themes for the coming months.

Global stock markets extended their gains in August, with the In August, the most notable moves came in currency and precious MSCI All Country World Index rising 2.7% and lifting its year-to- metals markets. The joint intervention by Japan and the United date advance to 14.6%. Developed markets, led by the US and States to support the yen in late July weakened the US dollar and, Japan, outperformed emerging markets, helped by the strong at the same time, drove a recovery in gold and silver prices. These performances of the technology sector and growth stocks. Despite trends continued after the US Treasury announced increased geopolitical tensions and some disappointing US economic data, buybacks, raising concerns about the trajectory of US public debt, upward revisions to 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates supported which had just surpassed USD 40 trillion. investor sentiment even as valuations remained high. More hawkish than expected comments from Fed Chairman Warsh Conversely, bonds underperformed as yields (which are inversely at Jackson Hole restored some momentum to the US dollar and related to prices) rose, with the moves more sharp in Europe and triggered profit-taking in precious metals. The dollar, however, Japan than in the US. Upward revisions to monetary policy remains within the trading range in place since June 2025, and expectations flattened the yield curve, with yields rising more on there is no clear reason for this to change in the short term. bonds with shorter maturities than those with longer maturities. Against this backdrop, a moderate overweight in equities and The upward pressure on bond yields reflected persistent alternative assets remains the most appropriate allocation for a geopolitical tensions and a renewed rise in energy prices. global balanced portfolio. This is balanced with a marginal However, current conditions suggest that any rate increases in the underweight allocation to fixed income and a more significant coming months will be moderate. The shock to commodity prices underweight allocation to cash. is nowhere near the scale of 2022 and the starting level of interest rates is higher than four years ago, giving central banks room to respond gradually.

Moz Afzal, Chief Investment Officer

3  Global Allocation | Fixed Income 6 Currency 4 Equity | Equity Sectors 7 Investment Publications 5 Equity Sector Views | Alternatives 8 Important Disclaimers