JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• JPM WEBINAR – 2H Equity Outlook. Thursday, September 17 @ 2:00pm ET. J.P. Morgan Speakers: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas (Head of Global Markets Strategy), Ron Adler (Co Head of Global High Touch Trading) and John Schlegel (Head of Positioning Intelligence). Host: Aaron Glover (Equity Franchise Sales Desk). No replay will be available. You may register here.

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We are Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu

• ROADMAP TO Q4 – we flag the key events for US markets into quarter’s end and offer thoughts on the Bull and Bear outcomes for each event.

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.3%, NDX +0.6%, RTY +0.7%. WTI +233bps at $87.83, NatGas +176bps to $2.78, UK NatGas +174bps to £1.6403, Gold +158bps to $4,588, Silver +203bps to $69.47, 10Y @ 4.696%, and VIX @ 15.71.

• US: Futures are higher. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by META (+0.9%) and TSLA (+1.1%); bond yields are 0-1bp lower. Commodities are mixed: base metals ad ags are all lower, while gold is 1.6% higher this morning; oil is unchanged. Overall, the overnight news flow was mostly quite as investors are waiting for today’s Global PMI release.

• EU/UK: Major markets are unchanged. Thematically, Gole Equities, Ceasefire, Renewables are among the top performing baskets. UKX +0.0%, SX5E +0.2%, SXXP +0.1%, DAX +0.2%.

• US MACRO DATA: PMI-Mfg, PMI-Srvcs and PMI-Composite at 9:45am ET. • US EARNINGS: REPL • GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (UK) Public Finances, Retail Sales at 2:00am ET. (France) PMIs at 3:15am ET. (Germany) PMIs at 3:30am ET. (Eurozone) PMIs at 4:00am ET. (UK) PMIs at 4:30am ET. (Canada) Retail Sales at 8:30am ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Overnight news was largely muted as we head into the end of a volatile week. The most notable price actions for yesterday was the retracement on the bond yield. Jay Berry (here) told us that the retracement was unsurprising given that “the announcement did not appear to be driven by either the robust framework introduced by TBAC or by broader measures of market liquidity, and read to us more as a signal that Treasury is uncomfortable with the level of long-term yields. However, Jay and team see the recent rise in the long end as driven by a combination of fundamental and global factors, and we do not think this type of policy action from Treasury should have a lasting impact on yields, especially absent real fiscal consolidation”