JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• MKT UPDATES – Price actions into next week’s diplomatic events, oil views from JPM trading desk, BOE/BOJ.

• POST-FED MKT THOUGHTS – assessing the tactical setup, reiterating our Tactically Cautious / Neutral view, analyzing what would flip us Bullish or Bearish

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We maintain our Tactically Cautious / Neutral view into the Fed, plus we update the Monetization Menu

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.1%, NDX +0.4%, RTY -0.0%. WTI -47bps at $101.43, NatGas -152bps to $2.86, UK NatGas +211bps to £1.9476, Gold +83bps to $4,378, Silver +275bps to $67.02, 10Y @ 4.957%, and VIX @ 15.33.

• US: Futures are higher, led by Tech and Mag 7. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly higher led by GOOG/L (+2.0%); AMZN is flat after the 5% rally yesterday amid a long-term deal with Generac. The curve is bearish flattening: 2y added 5bp, while 10y added 3bp. USD higher post BOJ decision. Oil is unchanged this morning; both precious and base metals are higher. After the risk-on rally yesterday, market momentum seems to be holding well

into today’s session with Tech continuing its leadership. Today’s macro data focus is on Industrial Production and Leading Index which are not expected to be market moving.

• EU/UK: Major markets are lower with Spain and SX5E lagging. Thematically, Semi and Defence are the two outperforming baskets, while Luxury, Defensive and Tariffs are lagging. Global rates showed bearish flattening of the curves: 2y Gilt and Bund are 7bp and 5bp higher, respectively. JPM Economist Greg Fuzesi now expects a fourth hike in March that takes the deposit rate to 3% (here).

• US MACRO DATA: Industrial Production, Mfg Production and Capacity Utilization at 9.15am ET. Fed’s Bowman at 9.30am ET. Leading Index at 10am ET.

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (UK) Retail Sales at 2am ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

The biggest macro updates since yesterday’s close was BOJ’s rate decision as the 7-2 vote was interpretated as “less hawkish than feared” by the market. We saw JPY depreciation post event with USDJPY adding 1.3% to 157.98 this morning. For US equities, this busy Central Bank week continues to add pressure on global bond yields. For the Fed particularly, the focus will shift to next two week’s Fedspeak to assess rate hike path for Q4 and 1H 2027, starting from Fed’ Bowman today at 9.30am ET; ultimately, we remain the view that Warsh’s speech did not provide clear information around how close we are to an inflation level / trend where the Fed holds. On the positive note, the slew of diplomatic events next week seem to provide a buffer for the geopolitical situation, with WTI holding around $101 this morning.