JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We maintain our Tactically Cautious / Neutral view into the Fed, plus we update the Monetization Menu

• JAY BARRY’S FED DAY SCENARIOS – Jay provides us with 5 outcomes and the impact to bonds.

• ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS – AI Monetization, Central Banks, Credit Spreads, Momentum Factor, and Oil Prices

• POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE – Weekly Wrap | Macro Risks Reflected among ETFs, CTAs, and Equity Themes + YTD Wrap Up

• AI / TECH UPDATES – Performance recap, AI Demand stories, Update on Data Center financing, Monetization / ROI, and a review of ORCL earnings.

• MACRO UPDATES – Feroli’s Fed View, Jay Barry’s Fed Scenarios, and an Oil Trading Desk view on SoH / crude prices

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX -0.8%, NDX -1.9%, RTY -0.3%. WTI +346bps at $103.51, NatGas +258bps to $2.90, UK NatGas +466bps to £2.0749, Gold -105bps to $4,303, Silver -233bps to $62.99, 10Y @ 4.961%, and VIX @ 18.03.

• US: Futures are down, dragged by Tech, and higher oil prices, though bond yields are not reacting. Yields are flat across the curve. Dubravko’s latest note looks at Eqy / Bonds

and he sees Eqys able to withstand higher yields until 10Y is closer to 6%. SPX may have its first down 1% day since late July. USD is seeing its strongest day in 3 wks. Cmdtys are mostly lower ex-Energy with WTI approaching $104/bbl with fuel prices higher; moves are driven by Saudi closing east/est pipeline and a delay on Iran/GCC mtgs to discuss SoH navigation. Base is outperforming Precious, but both are lower. In pre-mkt Eqys, Semis are down 4.7% pre-mkt, driven by the AI pullback story though China is pushing back saying the stmts are alarmist; expect add’l pushback from Trump. Software is +1.5% but Mag7 are weaker with NVDA -3.2%, TSLA -2.1%, and META -1.2%. Staples / HC are bid with Discretionary / Fins mixed but slightly positive. Industrials are getting hit with AI theme.

• EU/UK: Major markets are all lower ex-UK as the region sees higher yields, part of a bear flattening, into a heavy central bank week. Top D1 baskets include Software, AI Disruption, and Defensives with material weakness in Semis, AI plays incl. Energy. More Thematically, Value / Quality are leading, Momentum / Beta are lagging. This follows a weaker APAC session which saw significant selling of Tech. UKX +0.6%, SX5E -1.1%, SXXP -0.3%, DAX -0.6%. CSI -0.7%, HSI +0.5%, NKY -0.8%, ASX +0.1%, KOSPI -3.3%.

• US EARNINGS: BNC; SEP 13-15 All-In Summit 2026.

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (Japan) Capacity Utilization and IP (revision) at 12.30am ET. (Canada) CPI/PPI at 8.30am ET. (China) Retail Sales, IP, and Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD at 10pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE