LATAM Today July 24, 2026

Economics Research 24 July 2026 | 8:59AM EDT

LatAm Alberto Ramos | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC US Announces Section 301 10.0%-12.5% Import Tariffs The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced final action in its Sergio Armella | Section 301 investigations into 60 global economies. The investigations concluded Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC that these trading partners failed to adequately enact or effectively enforce Santiago Tellez prohibitions on importing goods produced with forced labor. | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC The new Section 301 tariffs took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Friday, July 24, 2026, immediately replacing the temporary 10% global tariffs (imposed under Section 122) that expired at the same time.

The affected LatAm economies are divided into two tariff tiers: Tier I (10.0%) includes Argentina, Ecuador, and Mexico, and Tier II (12.5%) includes Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela. Brazil is also subject to a separate 25% Section 301 tariff on certain products, and in the case of Mexico goods that qualify for preferential tariff treatment under USMCA rules of origin are exempt from the new Section 301 forced labor duties.

MEXICO Higher Than Expected Unemployment Rate; Lower Participation Rate; Stable Informality Bottom Line: The unemployment rate reached 2.90% in Jun, above the Bloomberg consensus at 2.80% and the 2.69% print a year ago. Seasonally adjusted, the unemployment rate increased 7bp to a still tight 2.80%; +31bp from the Oct-24 record low but with the 3-mma stable 2.69% since April. A broad measure of unemployment (which considers the individuals outside the labor force but available to work if offered a job) is tracking at 9.8%, below the 10.0% print a year ago. The labor force participation declined by 20bp to 58.8% sa (-100bp from a year ago). Employment growth decelerated to -0.1% yoy (0.7% yoy in May), with salaried jobs (+0.2% yoy). Sequentially, the underemployment declined to 6.6% sa (-40bp from May and -80bp from a year ago) and informally remained at 55.1% (+30bp from a year ago). According to the Social Security Ministry Registry (IMSS), formal employment growth accelerated to 2.03% yoy in Jun and real wage growth firmed to 2.9% yoy in Jun (2.5% yoy in May). Hence, the real wage bill of the economy grew 5.0% yoy in Jun, vs 4.1% yoy in May (3.1% yoy in Jun-25). Going forward we expect below-trend real activity growth to gradually impact labor market conditions.

1. The unemployment rate printed at 2.90% in Jun, above the Bloomberg consensus

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(2.80%) and the 2.69% print a year ago. On a seasonal and calendar adjusted basis the unemployment rate rose 7bp to a still tight 2.80% and with the 3-mma stable at 2.69% since April. 2. A broad measure of unemployment printed at 9.8%, below 10.0% a year ago and the 13.7% pre-pandemic historical average; this measure takes into consideration the cohort classified as outside the labor force (did not work and did not look for a job) but available to work if offered a job. 3. An estimated 4.7mn individuals of working age were classified as outside the active labor force (did not work and did not look for a job) but were available to work (down from 5.0mn a year ago). This contingent is equivalent to 10.9% of the working age population outside the labor force. 4. Compared with the same month a year ago, employment declined by a minor 84K (-0.1% yoy), and the economically active population rose by 48K (0.1% yoy). Hence, the ranks of the unemployed rose by 132K to 1.8mn. 5. Labor force participation declined by 10bp to 58.8% sa (-100bp from a year ago). 6. Salaried employment rose 0.2% yoy in Jun (-0.7% yoy in May) and self-employment also 0.2% yoy. Employment in manufacturing declined 0.2% yoy but in construction rose 3.0% yoy. Employment declined by 0.6% yoy in retail and 1.5% in services. 7. Underemployment (includes those reporting the need and availability to work more hours than their current job) declined by 40bp to 6.6% sa (-80bp from a year ago). Labor…