LATAM Today September 14, 2026

Economics Research 14 September 2026 | 8:33AM EDT

LATAM Today: September 14, 2026

ARGENTINA Alberto Ramos | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Data This Week: Thursday: Real GDP (2Q26); in line with the EMAE monthly activity indicator we Sergio Armella | forecast a 0.9% qoq sa decline of real GDP in the second quarter. Our sequential Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC forecast is consistent with an annual growth rate of 1.6% yoy. Growth slowed in the Santiago Tellez second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026 and has become substantially | narrower and increasingly concentrated in primary-sector activities, including Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

agriculture, oil, gas, and mining. Solid harvests, continued development of Vaca Panteleymon Semka | Muerta, and new mining investment have supported this performance, while Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC manufacturing, non-tradables, and other labor-intensive activities have lagged.

Friday: Trade Balance (Aug); we forecast a US$1.7bn trade surplus in August. Strong exports and softer imports have led to a notable strengthening of the trade balance so far in 2026. The cumulative trade balance over the last 12 months rose to a record US$23.7bn surplus in July, approximately 3.4% of GDP, up from US$11.3bn (about 1.6% of GDP) by year-end 2025. The cumulative energy balance over the last twelve months is tracking at US$10.6bn, as high oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East have benefited Argentina’s energy exports.

Friday: Budget Balance (Aug); we expect the August budget balance to continue the government’s policy of fiscal restraint and be consistent with a zero balance (primary surplus) throughout 2026. In general, disciplined spending has offset softer government revenues so far in 2026. As of July, the cumulative primary surplus reached 0.9% of GDP, while the overall balance surplus stood at 0.1% of GDP. Total government revenues have fallen 4.6% in real terms, and total expenditure is down by a somewhat lower 2.8% year-to-date.

BRAZIL Copom: 25bp Selic Rate Cut to 13.75% The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC; Copom) meets on September 16. We expect another 25bp Selic rate cut to 13.75%, with uncommitted, open-ended (data-dependent) guidance which would leave the door open for an eventual follow-up cut at the late Oct meeting. However, we do not rule out more hawkish signaling pointing to either a potential pause or limited scope for further easing, in particular if the FOMC raises rates.

Although the real ex-ante policy rate remains very high and there are now clear signs

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the economy is decelerating and that credit quality is deteriorating, the scope for rate cuts is limited by several factors: (1) inflation remains challenging, with generalized intense pressures on services; (2) the 2027 inflation expectations deteriorated further and moved farther from target; (3) dollar yields and oil prices have risen since the last meeting and conditions in the Middle East remain unsettled; (4) the labor market is yet to turn into a deflationary force; (5) the output gap remains positive; (6) a strong El Niño could add inflation pressure toward year-end; and (7) the Copom’s conditional inflation forecasts are expected to remain above target across the entire policy-relevant horizon.

In the policy statement we will be looking for the Copom inflation forecasts over the foresting horizon, the balance of risks for inflation, and whether the forward guidance turns more explicit and hawkish.

The central bank’s model-based conditional inflation forecasts are expected to have benefited from lower realized inflation (lowers inertia) and softer activity (wider output gap), but negatively impacted by higher inflation expectations, rising oil prices, and a slightly higher BRL/USD path. The Reference Scenario underlying assumptions entail a BRL/USD PPP path probably starting at 5.15 (vs. 5.10 at the August Copom meeting), the 2026/27/28 Selic path extracted from the Focus survey of market participants (13.75%/12.00%/10.50%, for end-2026/27/28)…