Market Intelligence US Morning Update

Equity Research 14 September 2026 | 8:40AM EDT

Market Intelligence: US Morning Update

Click “here” to listen to the US Morning Call. Chris Hussey | Stocks in Asia were mixed Monday as investors navigate higher rates (we now think Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

the Fed will hike this week — see below), higher oil prices, AI model development Sarah Herr | uncertainties, and ongoing geopolitical volatility. Japan, Korea and Taiwan lost Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

ground, while mainland China was flat and Hong Kong eked out some gains. In a Kshitij Garg | survey conducted by our economists ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Washington Goldman Sachs India SPL later this month, most respondents do not expect to see any change in US-China relations post the US midterm elections (see “China: Market expectations for the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting: Signals from our investor survey”).

European equities are also mixed this morning as gains in the UK offset weakness elsewhere in the region. James Moberly forecasts the BoE will hold rates steady at its meeting this week even as we also raise our headline inflation forecast significantly and now see CPI peaking in 1Q27 at 3.9% in “BoE Preview—Holding in September, Hiking in November.”

Across asset classes, yields on US 10-yr treasuries remain elevated at 4.96%, while front month Brent is up $2/bbl near $107/bbl following weekend developments in the Middle East.

Focus on: the Fed. David Mericle changes our forecast for the Fed in two fresh notes over the weekend, “Adding a Hike in September” and “US Economics Analyst: A Hike Without a Signal?” Why more hawkish? It’s not the fundamentals, it’s the market. With markets now pricing in a 90% probability of a Fed funds rate hike, we think the FOMC will want to avoid the market reaction that would likely follow from remaining on hold. It’s also AI. We think that Fed members likely think that all this AI infrastructure investment is having a structural impact on US inflation, so we raise our neutral interest rate by 25bp this weekend as well.

What does all of this mean for stocks and bonds? Will Marshall raises our year-end 20226 10-year yield forecasts to 4.75% in “Rates: Grouped Hikes.” But Ben Snider maintains our bullish view on equities in Friday’s Kickstart, “The impact of higher interest rates on equities in charts.” Equities typically struggle when the Fed starts to hike rates, but we expect the bull market to continue.

Communacopia + Technology Conference - it’s a wrap. AI, unsurprisingly, was the dominant theme at this year’s conference. AI investment remains broad and durable, extending from semis and datacenters into networking, enterprise infrastructure,

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Goldman Sachs Market Intelligence

telecom, consumer platforms, and Physical AI. Demand is strong, but growth and revenue timing are increasingly constrained by power, land, facility readiness, and component availability; companies are responding through capacity expansion, integrated solutions, pricing, and operating leverage. Prefer to listen? Click into a webinar at 10 AM ET today, “here.”

n Semiconductors, equipment, and storage: AI infrastructure spending and WFE visibility remain robust, led by DRAM, foundry/advanced logic, advanced packaging, and NAND. Inference is lifting NAND and mass-storage demand and supporting pricing; the main bottlenecks are increasingly downstream datacenter capacity and power, as Jim Schneider discusses in “Semiconductors: 2026 Communacopia + Technology Conference Wrap.” n Networking, hardware, and datacenters: AI is driving a multiyear networking cycle across hyperscalers, neoclouds, and enterprise. Demand spans higher-speed networking, scale-across…