Market Intelligence US Morning Update

Equity Research 4 September 2026 | 7:47AM EDT

Market Intelligence: US Morning Update

Click “here” to listen to the US Morning Call. Chris Hussey | Stocks in Asia traded mostly higher Friday to end the week with Japan, Hong Kong, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Korea and Taiwan all trading up 1%+ on the day. Economic news was scarce in the Sarah Herr | region overnight but our economists write that overall, our current activity indicator Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

has held up well so far across the region for August (see “Asia-Pacific Growth Kshitij Garg | Monitor: Still solid ahead of latest energy price uptick”). Goldman Sachs India SPL

European equities are little changed this morning. In Germany, July manufacturing data was mixed with strong headline growth (+2.5% mom), but driven by volatile large product orders (see “Germany: Strong Headline Factory Orders in July, but Near-Term Weakness Under the Surface”). Previewing next week’s ECB meeting, Jari Stehn believes that the central bank will hike rates as expected, but we also continue to believe that September is more likely than not the last ECB hike of this tightening cycle given our forecast for below-trend 2H26 growth, modest further core pressures, our forecast for lower energy prices than currently implied by forwards, and no Fed hikes, as he details in “ECB Preview—Another Hike Without Guidance”).

Across asset classes, yields on 10-year US Treasuries remain elevated at 4.78%. In commodities, front-month Brent oil is modestly down to ~$95 overnight.

Payrolls preview. We forecast nonfarm payrolls growth of 40k in August (see “August Payrolls Preview”).

Focus on Gas. Sam Dart highlights the ‘push and pull’ on prices for US natural gas in “Natural Gas Analyst: US Softening in 2027, Until Demand Growth Large Enough From 2029.” There is currently a mismatched timing of supply and demand growth. For the last 18 years, gas markets have been oversupplied with shale boosting low-cost production, pressuring the prices lower, competing with coal. However, now higher LNG exports and power demand are likely to drive the balance in the price range of US nat gas more than available supply. Look for US nat gas to remain low priced until 2029, when we see demand growth tightening US gas balances enough to support prices in the high $3s/mmBtu. We recommend that US gas producers hedge their 2027 exposure, including the 2027-28 winter, which looks significantly softer than this year’s winter, while still pricing almost $0.60/mmBtu higher.

Looking Ahead We get the August Payrolls report today.

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Performance of Global Indices (as of September 4, 2026)

Index % Change Asia Nikkei 225 1.3% Shanghai Composite -0.3% Hang Seng 1.7% Taiwan TAIEX 1.5% SPI/ASX 200 -0.2% Europe FTSE 100 -0.1% DAX 0.3% CAC 40 -0.2% Euro STOXX600 0.1% Source: FactSet, Bloomberg

Rating & Conviction List Changes (as of September 4, 2026)

Company Name Ticker Rating (New) Rating (Old)

Vodafone VOD  Buy Sell Neste OYJ NESTE.HE  Buy Neutral Vodafone VOD.L  Buy Sell Telenor TEL.OL  Neutral Buy Elisa OYJ ELISA.HE  Neutral Buy Cellnex Telecom SAU CLNX.MC  Sell Neutral

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Today’s Events (September 4, 2026) 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, August (GS +40k, consensus +55k, last -23k)

Private payroll employment, August (GS +40k, consensus +53k, last +30k)

Average hourly earnings (MoM), August (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%)

Unemployment rate, August (GS 4.1%, consensus 4.1%, last 4.1%)

n US Daily, Rindels: What’s Driving the Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate? n European Economics Analyst, Stehn: ECB Preview—Another Hike Without…