Morning Briefing Road to 5% Runs Through CPI

RATES & FOREX RESEARCH FOR CORPORATES 11 September 2026 MARKET REVIEW – FOREX CHART OF THE DAY MARKET REVIEW - RATES

Morning Briefing OVERNIGHT NEWS ◼ Bond rout stalls as oil retreats. 2y UST rose 18bp yesterday to 4.58%, UST 10y up to 4.97%. Bund crosses 3.50%. Treasury Sec Bessent: markets in “very good shape”, Treasury bought $5.19bn vs f/c $6bn, solid 30y auction stopped through 2.7bp. ◼ UK July GDP 0.4% m/m, 0.4% 3m/3m, above forecast. Services 0.4%, manufacturing 0.9%, construction 0.1%. Trade deficit narrows to £20.96bn, goods exports up 4.4%, EU exports up 5.2%, non-EU up 3.7%. ◼ SG GEO: global growth momentum should hold through year-end, before moderating in 2027. Inflation risks tilted to the upside. ◼ Day ahead: US CPI, SG f/c headline 0.4%, core 0.2%. Prelim Michigan sentiment. ECB speaker Lane. CPI for Canada and Brazil. ◼ Nikkei -1.9%, EUR 10y IRS unchanged at 3.525%, Brent crude -1.7% at $105.8/b, Gold -0.3% at $4,351/oz.

CALENDAR Key events of the day Chart of the day: Yields into orbit: 10y changes since 1 July SNB speaker: Schlegel (11:15) 10y yield since 1 July (bp change) ECB speaker: Lane (19:00) 35 US CPI, cons 0.4%, core, cons 0.2% (14:30) 30 25 US University of Michigan sentiment, cons 51 (16:00) 20 US Federal budget balance, cons -$220bn (20:00) 15 10 CA CPI, cons 3.0% yoy; trim, cons 1.9% (14:30) 5 BR CPI, cons 4.27% yoy (14:00) 0

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Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Corporate

MARKET REVIEW FOREX EUR/USD: overnight range. Spot struggles to capitalise on hawkish ECB rate hike, oil and US yields blocks return above 200dma (1.1633). Support 1.1530, resistance 1.1680. Option expiries at (€6.7bn), (€4.5bn). USD/JPY: overnight range. Spot consolidates in tight range. Support 152.90, resistance 156.25. Options 154.50 ($550m), 155.00 ($1.1bn). August PPI 7.6% yoy vs con 7.4%. FinMin Katayama repeats in close communication with the US on FX. GBP/USD: overnight range. Cable brushes off above forecast GDP, data raises suspense for BoE. Are economists underestimating a rate increase by year-end? Support 1.3420, resistance 1.3570. EUR/GBP rebound capped by 0.8595 (100dma). AUD/USD: overnight range. Dip to 0.7150 low bought as Treasuries and industrial metals stabilise following the selloff yesterday. Support 0.7120, resistance 0.7235. 3y AGB yield +13.5bp this morning, crosses 5.0% for first time since May-11. RATES EU: 10y IRS up 16bp for the week at 3.525%. Support 3.43%, resistance 3.60%. Weekly IG issuance totals €64bn led by corporates (€26.3bn, highest since May). Energy and ‘live’ October ECB meeting lift Bund over 3.50%. 10y swap spread tightens to below 3bp. US: 10y IRS up 16bp this week at 4.56% on oil surge and underwhelming UST buyback operation. CPI in focus, Fed futures discount 16bp for FOMC next week. Support 4.43%, resistance 4.67%. Solid 30y auction: 2.7bp stop through, non-dealers took record 97.8%. UK: 10y IRS up 23bp this week at 4.90% (4.922% intra-day high yesterday). Support 4.81%, resistance 5.06%. Gilts underperform USTs and Bunds. Surprise July GDP gain of 0.4% could means close BoE call next week. SG f/c on hold at 3.75% through year-end. More insight from SG Research: Daily news Market alert Special reports

Kenneth Broux Santosh Ejanthkar Tanmay Purohit Juliette Guillaume (

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The week in review 1. Carnage for global bonds followed the latest run-up in energy prices but JGBs bucked the trend with the stronger Yen partially neutralising inflation fears. Yield curves bear flattened, with 2s/10s in the US falling back below 40bp and Bunds tightening below 30bp. Money markets paths steepened for future policy tightening in the US and euro zone to three hikes and to four in the UK. Equities and credit indices retreated but losses overall were contained to 1% for the S&P, 0.5% for the Nasdaq composite, 2% for Europe and the UK. Gilts and European rates led the sell- off in sovereign debt, highlighting the asymmetric upside risk from energy. ECB updated projections were not wildly different compared to June and the downside revision to food prices…