Must C Public LatAm FINAL v2 CCM

Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published September 10, 2026

LatAm Poised for Take-Off The Macro Cycle Turns Latin America’s Way

Citi Research Guest Contributors Economics FX & Rates Strategy Equity Strategy Julio Figueroa Head of Latin America, Citi Ernesto Revilla Luis Costa Andrés Cardona Felipe Juncal Ivan Riveros, CFA Andre Mazini Kristen Bitterly Julio Cesar Ruiz Kiepher Kennedy Head of the Latin America Esteban Tamayo Piero Trotta Private Bank, Citi Credit Strategy Leonardo Porto Javier Pizarro Donato Guarino Brian Flores, CFA

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.

Executive Summary Latin America is entering one of its most favorable environments in years, with external and domestic conditions supporting a potential acceleration in growth. The global economy has remained resilient despite recent shocks, while a weaker U.S. dollar and firm commodity prices provide important tailwinds for the region. Latin America is also benefiting from shifting trade patterns, standing out as one of the few regions gaining import market share from both the U.S. and China. At the same time, stronger macroeconomic management, improving policy frameworks, and a more business-friendly political backdrop in several countries are strengthening the investment case. In this report, we examine whether these forces can translate into sustained growth and market outperformance. Our conclusion is clear: the opportunity is significant, but lasting success will depend on reforms, execution, and policy consistency.

Latin America is poised for take-off. Or to be more precise: the conditions for Latin America to achieve a higher rate of growth are the best they have been in decades, and it is time to capitalize on the opportunity.

The last time the region achieved a sustained acceleration in growth was from 2003-2008. Back then, a weak dollar (USD) and strong commodity prices combined to form the backdrop for growth. Those conditions, and more, are present again today.

Still, the development misfortune of Latin America is how little (or no) convergence it has achieved toward higher income levels. Convergence is the expectation that an emerging market will achieve higher growth rates to catch up to developed markets. As a region, Latin America has achieved little sustained convergence over the past 120 years. Consider that in 1990, LatAm’s GDP per capita as a share of the U.S. was 28%; in 2024, it was 26.4%. Other regions, particularly Emerging Asia, have achieved significant rates of growth and convergence.

When looking at different eras of growth and development for Latin America, it is not easy to extract common characteristics of high growth episodes. Generally, one would expect that strong commodity prices, domestic political stability or at least policy continuity, and pragmatic governments are minimum conditions. Latin America has those again today. However, history shows that there were periods of strong growth without particularly strong commodity prices (1950 to 1973), or strong investment (the commodities boom of the 2000s).

However, the common denominator across eras when Latin America has achieved high growth and convergence (an increase in its GDP per capita as a share of the U.S. GDP per capita) is when the USD has been weak. This is because a weak USD implies easier financial conditions for emerging markets: Capital flows increase searching for stronger currencies and returns, debt repayment is cheaper, and commodity prices move higher. Right now, the global economy is facing a weak(er) USD regime that has benefited Latin America, and that for various reasons might be expected to continue in the medium term.

The region is enjoying many other tailwinds as well. Commodity prices, and hence terms of trade for the region, are the highest they have been since the supercycle of the 2000s. Latin America has benefited from the global trade reconfiguration as it has been one of the few places in the world that

2 Citi Research | Must C | September 2026