Natural Gas Comment Risks to TTF Remain Skewed to The Upside in The Near Term

Commodities Research 27 July 2026 | 8:53AM EDT

Natural Gas Comment: Risks to TTF Remain Skewed to The Upside in The Near Term

n The moderate de-escalation of the Iran conflict over the weekend has driven TTF Samantha Dart | down 7% vs last Friday’s close to 59 EUR/MWh. In a scenario where a new deal is Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC reached between the US and Iran in the coming days or weeks, we expect the risk Laura Cyr premium in TTF to drop sharply, likely to below 50 EUR/MWh. However, whether | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC that potential initial drop in prices would be sustainable would ultimately depend on the observed pace of ramp of Persian Gulf LNG exports, which has been slow (Exhibit 1). European gas storage remains tight (Exhibit 2), and there’s limited time left for storage injections ahead of Europe’s heating season, which starts on Nov 1st. n To be clear, our base case that Persian Gulf LNG exports resume a gradual ramp from this week and into October, if realized, would still leave only small room for error, given our estimated 28% full end-Mar27 NW Europe storage level, assuming 10-year average winter weather. Such end-winter storage level would be enough to withstand a two-standard-deviation colder-than-average winter (worth approximately 24% of storage capacity), but not by much. n As a result, we maintain our 60 EUR/MWh TTF forecast for Bal-3Q26, reflecting an elevated probability that European gas prices might have to discourage Asia industrial demand for gas, which historical data suggest starts at 65 EUR/MWh. This is consistent with recent gas price action in Europe and Asia. Specifically, TTF moving towards 60 EUR/MWh (and pulling JKM prices higher with it) has started to weigh on Asia appetite for LNG. This has been reflected in a narrower JKM-TTF premium relative to the shipping cost for US LNG cargoes to be diverted from Europe to Asia, effectively reducing the incentive for Atlantic Basin LNG supply to move to Asia (vs to Europe) at the margin (Exhibit 3 and Exhibit 4). n Risks to our near-term TTF forecasts remain two-sided, but skewed to the upside on net, and we continue to recommend that gas users hedge their exposure to winter European gas and LNG price spikes. In a scenario where Middle East energy exports normalize only gradually through 2027, we estimate that Dec26 TTF would likely need to move above 100 EUR/MWh, 110% above our 50 EUR/MWh base case, to significantly discourage Asia LNG demand. In contrast, we estimate that a faster-than-expected ramp of Hormuz flows would allow TTF to sell off back in line with the coal-to-gas switching threshold of 40 EUR/MWh, 20% below our current Dec26 TTF price base case.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Goldman Sachs Natural Gas Comment

Exhibit 1: Qatari LNG loadings averaged below our Exhibit 2: North West European gas storage remains at expectations last week, signaling that Hormuz crossings very low levels remain restricted Bcm Qatar LNG cargo loadings, mtpa

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Kpler, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research We define NW Europe as the region including UK, Belgium, France, Netherlands and Germany.

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3: The TTF rally has helped reduce the incentive for Exhibit 4: ...though it would likely take an even higher TTF Atlantic Basin LNG supply to be diverted from Europe to price to support higher US LNG exports to Europe vs to Asia... Asia $/mmBtu (lhs), EUR/MWh (rhs) US LNG cargo loadings marked for delivery in Europe vs in Asia, mtpa

JKM-TTF premium minus the US shipping cost differential (Asia vs Europe) (lhs) TTF (rhs) Red line above zero means US supply 1.60 incentivized to head to Asia instead of to Europe

-0.50 38 5-May 14-May 23-May 1-Jun 10-Jun 19-Jun 28-Jun 7-Jul 16-Jul 25-Jul

Source: ICE, S&P Global Commodities Insights, Goldman Sachs Global Source: Kpler, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Investment Research

Samantha Dart Laura Cyr Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC