PMI: FALL SEVEN TIMES, GET UP EIGHT

Europe Watch - Quick Insights 24 Jul 2026

PMI: FALL SEVEN TIMES, GET UP EIGHT Davide Oneglia

July flash Euro Area (EA) PMIs surprised to the upside across sectors and regions, led by manufacturing output (53.0 up from 51.7, a 52-month high – not a typo!) and export orders, amid stronger service activity and new hiring, and lower inflation pressures. To be sure, there are many reasons to underplay the relevance of today’s data. With the Iran war flaring up again, some payback is likely. But the message is that, beneath shocks, the EA is more resilient than consensus thinks and markets price in. As we wrote here and here, this has also implications for the ECB.

Here is a rundown of the major datapoints. Stronger manufacturing (except in France).

Stronger service activity (caveat: volatility/seasonality is huge).