Siemens Healthineers AG (SHLG)

Equity Research 3 August 2026 | 9:12PM BST

Siemens Healthineers AG (SHLG.DE): Updating our estimates post Q3 26 results; Remain Neutral

We are updating our estimates following Siemens Healthineers’ Q3 26 earnings. We Richard Felton, CFA | incorporate Q3 26 results, updated FY26 guidance (and tariff refund impact), and Goldman Sachs International reflect on management commentary for EPS growth in FY27e. Lauren Mitchell | Taking a step back, we note the positive takeaways from Q3 26 results: (1) We Goldman Sachs International believe that management commentary on FY27e provides investors with an early sense of the building blocks EPS growth, (2) The financial implications of the spin from Siemens AG are more clear, including removing uncertainty around a significant licensing fee impact (as some investors had worried) and (3) Growth in Imaging and at the group level to accelerate into Q4, after timing impacts of orders in Q3 weighed on growth.

Against those positives, we highlight key questions that remain around, (1) Diagnostics in China that faces potential further policy headwinds and could present further downside risk to estimates (e.g. hemostasis VBP, DRG, pricing unification), (2) Diagnostics ex. China as legacy platforms decline, which is important in the context of FY27 consensus still showing +53% adj. EBIT growth for Diagnostics.

Overall our adj. EBIT estimates are +7%/-1%/-3% in FY26/27/28e adjusted EPS; the increase to FY26 is driven by tariff refunds in FY26, partly offset by lower contribution from Dx. Our model does not assume further tariff refunds. We lower our FY27/28e estimates primarily driven by lower growth (Dx) and higher finance cost. Our 12-month target is unchanged at €42. Based on our revised estimates, Healthineers in now trading on 15.8x NTM P/E and 11.7x NTM EV/EBITDA. We are Neutral rated.

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Goldman Sachs Siemens Healthineers AG (SHLG.DE)

Thoughts for FY27e EPS growth; GSe -2% below next year

Management provided some early thoughts around EPS headwinds and tailwinds for FY27 during the Q3 conference call. We have incorporated those comments into our estimates - which we detail below:

n FY26 base adj. EPS is the mid-point of ex. tariff refund EPS guidance for €2.20-2.30 adj. EPS (€2.35-2.45 including tariff refunds). Note our FY26e adjusted EPS ex tariff is €2.28. n Medium term EPS growth guidance - at the 2025 CMD, management outlined a medium-term outlook for double digit EPS growth beyond FY26e; we assume underlying FY27 growth broadly in line with this, prior to the specific headwinds which we discuss next. n Inflation - management expect cost mitigation efforts to broadly offset input cost inflation in FY27e. At the CMD, Healthineers outlined plans to mitigate €400m in tariff impacts by FY28 with positive contributions beginning in 2027 (albeit back-end loaded). Management spoke to the ramp of these mitigation efforts in FY27e offsetting the recent additional inflation, including across components like memory chips, raw materials and freight costs. n Net financials - we forecast an EPS headwind from net financials in FY27e, in line with management guidance for ~€330m in FY26e before a mid-to-high double-digit €m change in FY27e from debt re-financing, partially offset by deleveraging. GSe €0.05 headwind to FY27 EPS from this impact. n Higher tax rate - GSe tax rate of 23% in FY26e, moving back in line with the medium term range of 24-26% in FY27e (GSe 25% in FY27e). GSe €0.06 headwind from tax on FY27 EPS. n Potential incremental headwind from separation costs (subject to spin) - with the potential deconsolidation from Siemens AG (SIEGn.DE - covered by Daniela Costa)…