Swiss economy

24 July 2026, 16:50 UTC Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research

New US tariffs on Swiss companies Swiss economy Author: Alessandro Bee, Economist, UBS Switzerland AG

• The US has introduced fresh tariffs of 12.5% on Swiss exports. These replace the previously applicable tariff rate of 10%.

• Our economic outlook remains unchanged. We continue to expect Swiss GDP growth, adjusted for sporting events, of 0.7% this year and 1.4% next year.

• The further development of tariff rates is uncertain. It is possible that the US will impose additional tariffs on Switzerland in the coming months. Our base scenario remains that, similar to the EU, the long-term tariff cap is likely to be 15%, although temporarily higher tariffs cannot be ruled out. Quelle: UBS

For Swiss goods, a tariff rate of 12.5% applies from or next. The recovery of the Swiss economy in 2027 is today, based on Section 301 of the US Trade Act of expected to be driven primarily by a recovery in the European 1974. The tariffs are based on an investigation by the US economy next year. Trade Representative, which accuses Switzerland (and other countries) of not doing enough to prevent the import of If the Swiss economy does bounce back in 2027, the Swiss goods produced with forced labor. EU countries are subject National Bank (SNB) is likely to reduce monetary stimulus to a tariff rate of 10% on the same basis. The EU has enacted and raise its policy rate in the middle of next year. a ban on the import of goods produced with forced labor. Tariff outlook remains uncertain The new tariffs replace the temporary additional tariff of The further development of tariff rates remains uncertain. 10%, which was based on Section 122 of the Trade Act and It is quite possible that the US will impose additional tariffs had been in effect since 24 February of this year. These tariffs on Switzerland. A second investigation under Section 301 had a maximum duration of 150 days and expired on 24 July. of the US Trade Act is underway against Switzerland (and other countries), the results of which are not yet known. For Swiss companies, this means the tariff rate increases This second investigation focuses on industrial overcapacity. from 10% to 12.5%, although, unlike before, existing It cannot be ruled out that additional tariffs resulting from most-favored-nation tariffs are now taken into account. the Section 301 investigations into overcapacity will be Exemptions apply to sectors such as pharmaceuticals or added to the aforementioned tariffs, which would mean the steel, where industry-specific tariffs are in place. The new cumulative tariff rate would be significantly higher than in tariffs could hurt the competitive position of Swiss exporters the first half of the year. in the US compared to competitors from the EU, but the impact is unlikely to weigh on the economy. Another option for the US to introduce new tariffs is based on Section 338 of the Trade Act. This legal basis authorizes Therefore, we are maintaining our forecast for GDP growth, the US president to impose tariffs if a country discriminates adjusted for sporting events, of 0.7% in 2026 and 1.4% against US trade compared to other countries. This week, in 2027. Exports to the US are unlikely to make a notable the US imposed tariffs of 50% on Canada on this basis. contribution to domestic economic growth either this year

This report has been prepared by UBS Switzerland AG. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document.

Since November 2025, negotiations have been underway between Switzerland and the US for a new trade agreement. Our base scenario remains that Switzerland will conclude a tariff agreement with the US with a tariff cap of 15%. The US has already concluded a similar tariff agreement with the EU.

At the start of negotiations, US tariffs against Switzerland were initially reduced to 15% at the end of last year. It is possible that this 15% cap will apply again if the combined tariffs based on Section 301 exceed the 15% mark.

In our view, it is rather unlikely that no tariff agreement will be reached and that tariffs on Swiss companies will remain significantly higher than for EU…