Turkiye Roughly Stable Reserves

Economics Research 30 July 2026 | 6:01PM BST

Turkiye: Roughly Stable Reserves; Continued Increase in FX Deposits

n As of 29 July, the TCMB’s gross reserves stood at US$173bn, down by US$0.6bn Clemens Grafe | from a week earlier (but up by US$1.6bn excluding gold valuation). Considering Goldman Sachs International also the US$2bn decline in TCMB’s FX liabilities (mostly to banks), TCMB’s FX Basak Edizgil purchases reached US$3.5bn this week. Compared with February, gross reserves | remain US$43bn lower (-US$13bn excluding gold valuation), while its FX Goldman Sachs International

liquidity—defined as gross reserves less gold, the SDR position at the IMF and assets held in non-SDR currencies—is only US$6bn lower. n In the week to 24 July, and on a valuation-adjusted basis, FX deposits in the banking system continued to increase, by US$2bn, while gold deposits were again broadly stable. FX deposits have been rising since early July, bringing the total increase to roughly US$8bn, pointing to the first notable upward move in these deposits since the shock in March last year. There were US$1bn of TRY outflows from money market funds as of 24 July, likely driven by foreigners. By contrast, TRY deposits increased by US$3bn as of 27 July, bringing the cumulative rise in TRY deposits since February to US$33bn. Domestic NDFs (TRY-settled FX forwards) continued to edge lower compared with a week earlier and stood at US$3.8bn as of 29 July. While the rise in FX deposits is notable, it could be pointing to a shift out of domestic NDFs into deposits amid the re-escalation of the Iran war and higher energy prices. n In the week to 24 July, banks’ off-balance-sheet FX position (excluding swaps with the TCMB and corporates), an imperfect proxy for foreign positioning in TRY, increased by US$2bn to US$51bn. There were roughly US$1bn inflows into local debt while non-resident positioning in equities remained stable. n In the week to 24 July, TRY deposit rates increased by 0.2pp to 46.9% (annl.), while consumer loan rates fell by 0.5pp to 62.8% (annl.) and commercial loan rates rose by 0.6pp to 54.4% (annl.). The deviation from the annualised policy rate (~45%) stands at roughly 2pp for deposit rates and at 18pp and 10pp for consumer and commercial loan rates, respectively. n The TCMB’s total funding to banks increased by US$177bn to negative TRY1125bn as of 30 July, suggesting continued excess liquidity in the system. As of 27 July, TRY loan growth fell by 0.5pp from a week earlier to 32.7%mom (3mma, annl.), while FX loan growth increased by 1.7pp but remained marginally in negative territory. Total weighted credit expansion (TRY + FX) now stands at 28%yoy, close to the trough in the middle of 2024. Despite this, our quantity-based real financial conditions index loosened by 0.2pp compared with

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Exhibit 1: Breakdown of the TCMB’s reserves All values are in US$bn. Values in parentheses under gross FX assets represent changes excluding gold price movements. Gross FX assets include the TCMB’s sell-side swaps. Net FX assets exclude buy-side swaps with banks and those with other central banks. FX liquidity is calculated by subtracting gold, SDR position at IMF, FX assets in non-SDR currencies from gross FX assets and excludes sell-side swaps.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics

Exhibit 2: TCMB’s gross FX assets and FX liquidity FX liquidity is calculated by subtracting gold, SDR position at IMF, FX assets in non-SDR currencies

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics