Turkiye US$6bn Rise in TCMB Reserves

Economics Research 24 July 2026 | 11:42AM BST

Turkiye: US$6bn Rise in TCMB Reserves; FX Loan Growth in Negative Territory

n As of 22 July, the TCMB’s gross reserves stood at US$174bn, up US$6bn from a Clemens Grafe | week earlier (+US$4bn excluding gold valuation). All of the increase reflected Goldman Sachs International higher bank deposits at the TCMB, with the Bank selling FX on net. Compared Basak Edizgil with February, gross reserves remain US$42bn lower (-US$14bn excluding gold | valuation), while its FX liquidity—defined as gross reserves less gold, the SDR Goldman Sachs International

position at the IMF and assets held in non-SDR currencies—is only US$4bn lower. n In the week to 17 July, and on a valuation-adjusted basis, FX deposits in the banking system increased by US$5bn, while gold deposits were broadly stable. There were US$2bn of TRY inflows into money market funds as of 17 July. TRY deposits also increased by US$3bn as of 20 July, bringing the cumulative rise in TRY deposits since February to US$30bn. Domestic NDFs (TRY-settled FX forwards) edged lower compared with a week earlier and stood at US$4bn as of 22 July. Given the rise in FX deposits was accompanied by continued inflows into money market funds and TRY deposits, as well as a decline in domestic NDFs, we think it is likely one-off, rather than representing renewed dollarisation pressure. n In the week to 17 July, banks’ off-balance-sheet FX position (excluding swaps with the TCMB and corporates), an imperfect proxy for foreign positioning in TRY, fell by US$1bn to US$48bn. There were minimal inflows into local debt and equity, which, cumulatively since February, continue to show US$5bn of outflows, mostly from local debt. n In the week to 17 July, TRY deposit rates fell by 0.3pp to 46.7% (annl.), while consumer and commercial loan rates increased by 0.5pp and 0.3pp, respectively, to 63.2% (annl.) and 53.8% (annl.). The deviation from the annualised policy rate (~45%) stands at roughly 2pp for deposit rates and at 19pp and 9pp for consumer and commercial loan rates, respectively. n The TCMB’s total funding to banks fell by TRY218bn from a week earlier to negative TRY1302bn as of 23 July, suggesting continued excess liquidity in the system. As of 20 July, TRY loan growth fell by 1pp from a week earlier to 33%mom (3mma, annl.), while FX loan growth fell by 3pp into negative territory. Total weighted credit expansion (TRY + FX) now stands at 27%yoy, close to the trough in the middle of 2024. Despite this, our quantity-based real financial conditions index loosened by 0.2pp compared with a week ago, driven by the uptick in equities offsetting the decline in credit growth and house prices (Exhibit 15).

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Exhibit 1: Breakdown of the TCMB’s reserves All values are in US$bn. Values in parentheses under gross FX assets represent changes excluding gold price movements. Gross FX assets include the TCMB’s sell-side swaps. Net FX assets exclude buy-side swaps with banks and those with other central banks. FX liquidity is calculated by subtracting gold, SDR position at IMF, FX assets in non-SDR currencies from gross FX assets and excludes sell-side swaps.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics

Exhibit 2: TCMB’s gross FX assets and FX liquidity FX liquidity is calculated by subtracting gold, SDR position at IMF, FX assets in non-SDR currencies

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics