Ukraine NBU Hikes by 50bp As Expected, Delivers Balanced Guidance

Economics Research 17 September 2026 | 1:50PM BST

Ukraine: NBU Hikes by 50bp As Expected, Delivers Balanced Guidance

Bottom Line: The NBU increased its policy rate by 50bp to +16.00%, in line with our Andrew Matheny | and consensus expectations. The Bank noted that inflationary pressures remain Goldman Sachs International elevated, exceeding the NBU’s July forecast trajectory, driven primarily by larger-than-expected rises in oil prices. The guidance provided in the accompanying press release was balanced, a notable shift from hawkish guidance at the July MPC meeting, stating that it “stands ready to respond flexibly to further changes in the balance of risks”.

n Policy: o Key Policy Rate: +16.00%, up from +15.50% o Overnight Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate: +16.00%, up from +15.50% o Refinancing Loan Rate: +20.00%, up from +19.50% o Three-Month CD Deposit Rate: +19.50%, up from +19.00%

1. The Board of the NBU increased its key policy rate by 50bp to +16.00%, in line with our and consensus expectations. Echoing its statement from the July decision, the Bank cited he “persistent underlying price pressures, second-round effects from supply shocks, and higher medium-term inflationary risks” as the primary rationale, as well as retaining the “attractiveness of Hryvnia assets”, maintaining FX market sustainability, and keeping inflation expectations anchored. Headline inflation increased in both July and August, and core momentum—while not accelerating—has stabilised at +8.1%yoy for the past three prints, above levels consistent with the NBU’s +5% inflation target. 2. On risks, it continues to identify the war with Russia as the key threat, while also placing growing emphasis on renewed Middle East risks as oil prices have risen more than expected. On the dovish side, the Bank noted that “complicated exports” of agricultural commodities via Black Sea ports have increased domestic food supply and believes this will likely restrain pro-inflationary developments, potentially implying downside to local food inflation. 3. We would characterise the guidance as balanced, with the NBU expecting inflation to decline in 2027 thanks to its current policy stance. The Bank stated it “stands ready to respond flexibly to further changes in the balance of risks” and noted that, while it would be “ready to deploy additional measures to curb inflation”, it

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

would consider easing monetary conditions “if the deteriorating security situation leads to a noticeable slowdown in consumer demand and the labor market in the coming months”. 4. The NBU also announced that it is working on new measures to provide support to businesses affected by aerial attacks, alongside the two packages of regulatory measures aimed at expanding access to financing it has already adopted. 5. Outside of interest rate policy, we believe that the NBU’s FX policy has shifted towards a more active role in stabilising the Hryvnia in recent months, in response to the inflation risks. We thus expect continued relative currency stability until inflation risks decline. 6. The minutes from the NBU Board meeting will be published on 28 September and the next MPC meeting will take place on 29 October.

Andrew Matheny and Alberto Dario Zanettin*

*Alberto is an intern in the CEEMEA economics team.