US Daily July GSAI Heating Up

Economics Research 31 July 2026 | 3:57PM CDT

US Daily: July GSAI: Heating Up

n The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) increased by 3.1pt to 64.6 in July. The Jessica Rindels | composition was mixed-to-strong, as the new orders (+6.7pt to 69.4) and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC shipments (+4.5pt to 64.6) components increased while the employment (-3.7pt to 44.8) component declined. n Other business activity surveys were stronger on net this month. Both our manufacturing (+1.6pt to 55.8) and services (+1.6pt to 54.5) survey trackers increased in July. The employment components of our manufacturing (+0.9pt to 51.5) and services (+1.2pt to 51.1) survey trackers also both increased in July. In the special questions in this month’s Kansas City Fed surveys, more firms reported that profit margins had decreased than increased since the beginning of the year, but more expected demand to increase over the remainder of the year. n In this month’s GSAI special questions, surveyed analysts continued to expect higher commodity prices to raise input costs and selling prices and weigh on demand over the next 6 months, in line with the results of our March GSAI. 76% of surveyed analysts expected higher oil and other commodity prices to raise input costs, and 92% expected the companies they cover to raise their own prices to cover those higher input costs. 59% of surveyed analysts expected higher gasoline or other prices to weigh on demand in their sector over the next 6 months.

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The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) increased by 3.1pt to 64.6 in July (Exhibit 1). The composition was mixed-to-strong, as the new orders (+6.7pt to 69.4) and shipments (+4.5pt to 64.6) components increased while the employment (-3.7pt to 44.8) component declined.

The exports component declined sharply (-15.0pt to 60.0), partly retracing the large increase in June, and the inventories component also increased (+2.1pt to 60.1). The orders less inventories gap increased (+9.3pt to +4.6).

The GSAI’s materials prices (-6.3pt to 75.0) and wages (-0.3pt to 71.9) components both declined. The output prices component decreased (-13.0pt to 80.8) after reaching the highest level in the survey’s history in June.

Exhibit 1: The GSAI Increased in July

Index GSAI (left) Index 80 Average of ISM Manufacturing and Services (right)

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Institute for Supply Management

Other business activity surveys were stronger on net this month. Both our manufacturing (+1.6pt to 55.8) and services (+1.6pt to 54.5) survey trackers increased in July. We found that some of the strength in the level of our survey trackers is a result of nominal bias, the effect of prices on survey index levels caused by respondents who think about shipments and orders in dollar rather than real terms. But even after adjusting for this bias, our price-adjusted survey trackers still look solid.

The employment components of our manufacturing (+0.9pt to 51.5) and services (+1.2pt to 51.1) survey trackers also both increased in July.