US Economic Notes What you need to know for the week ahead

Economics Date 18 September 2026 US Economic Notes

What you need to know for the week ahead Brett Ryan Commentary for Monday: This week’s economic calendar features a heavy dose Senior US Economist of Fedspeak with a sprinkling of data releases that should provide a timely update on the outlook for capex and the overall business sector. In addition, the Treasury will conduct its second long-end buyback in the 20-30y sector since expanding Justin Weidner Economist the size. Investors will likely focus on the purchase amount, which Treasury has indicated would be at least $4bn but could be higher, as well as the breadth of offers accepted. Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D. Chief US Economist Regarding this week’s Fed communications, recall that while the FOMC raised rates as expected last week, the meeting statement, updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Chair Warsh’s brief press conference sent a Amy Yang Economist hawkish signal on the policy outlook. As we noted in our recap (see “Fed Notes: Sept FOMC recap: Removing a "dose of accommodation" helps the inflation go down“), the most important changes to the meeting statement focused on inflation as last week’s hike was framed as “support[ing] a timelier return” to the 2 percent target. The statement also removed the reference to supply shocks as part of the reason for above-target inflation, potentially implying Fed officials are no longer willing to look through their impact on inflation. Both changes emphasize the hawkish shift in Fed officials’ views, mirrored in their economic and policy projections released alongside the statement.

The latest SEP also pointed to a strong consensus around another hike this year, with 16 officials anticipating additional tightening in 2026. Next year’s projections showed most officials split between 50bps and 75bps of total tightening. The long-run dot also edged higher to 3.2%. To be sure, Chair Warsh’s press conference did not provide forward guidance. He framed the rate hike as aimed at removing a “dose” of accommodation against a backdrop of limited evidence that policy is restrictive. Warsh also noted that this view on financial conditions is now “widely shared across the Committee.”

Warsh was also asked for his view on the drivers of higher long-term interest rates. He provided three. First, higher bond yields reflect economic strength. Second, there is great competition from capital given the “surge” in capex – mostly linked to AI – and increased issuance from hyperscalers. Note that Wednesday’s S&P Global manufacturing survey (54.0 forecast vs. 53.9 previously) and Friday’s durable goods orders (+0.6% headline / +1.1% ex-transportation / +1.1% core) should provide a timely update on the capex outlook. Third, geopolitical developments that have led to higher commodity prices are also putting upward pressure on long-term interest rates.

Given that the vote was unanimous last week, and the dots showed significant consensus on further tightening, we expect this week’s slate of speakers to largely reiterate Chair Warsh’s messaging. That said, we will be parsing this week’s Fedspeak to see how various officials may differ in terms of their outlooks on the pace and extent of additional monetary tightening. Indeed, we will be

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18 September 2026 US Economic Notes

benchmarking each speech against our best guesses as to each official’s policy rate forecast (see “Fed Notes: Who's who in the September 2026 dot plot“).

Monday kicks off with Chicago’s Goolsbee (non-voter) who we see as joining the chorus of officials projecting another hike this year. On Tuesday the two Vice Chairs, Governor Jefferson (VC of the Board of Governors) and New York’s Williams (VC of the FOMC), will open the New York Fed’s Treasury market conference where the focus will be on Treasury market functioning. That said, we may get more color on Williams’s outlook on Thursday and Friday when he participates in policy panels. Though we see both…