US Tariff Impact Tracker Imports into LA Mixed Over Next Two Weeks on a YOY Basis

Equity Research 27 July 2026 | 5:00AM EDT

US Tariff Impact Tracker: Imports into LA Mixed Over Next Two Weeks on a YOY Basis

US Tariff Impact Tracker: This past week, laden vessels from China to USA were Jordan Alliger | down sequentially (-3% WoW) and down on a YoY basis (-14.5% YoY). Data Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC suggests TEUs coming into Port of LA will turn positive next week (+2% WoW) Paul Stoddard following this past week’s +2% sequential move, before seeing a similar increase | of +2% WoW two weeks out (YoY is expected to be +8.5% and then -10%, one Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

week and two weeks out). What we will need to monitor is how levels move through Andrzej Tomczyk, CFA | July and August, which could suggest how shippers are deciding to restock, how early Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC peak could be starting (and whether there was an early start to peak shipping this spring), and with in some cases how lower effective tariff rates impact import decisions amidst an uncertain geopolitical backdrop.

Trade uncertainty remains prevalent in global trade.

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Goldman Sachs US Tariff Impact Tracker

Key observations from this past week’s report:

n China freight flows (week ending Thursday, July 23rd) showed a sequential decline in laden vessels from China to the US (-3%) with a negative YoY at -14.5% (vs -18% in the prior week). n Port Optimizer sequentials indicate imports into the Port of Los Angeles are set to be up +2% TEUs (July 31) while the early read suggests an increase of +2% on a two-week out basis; on a YoY basis, imports into LA are set to trend positive to +8.5% and then decrease -10% two-week out. n Rail intermodal volumes along the West Coast were up +8% YoY following last week’s +4% performance. n Ocean container rates were down -12% sequentially; rates on a YoY basis were up +167% YoY this past week. We anticipate some choppiness could remain over the coming weeks as global capacity potentially shifts given ongoing geopolitical events. n Load availability for trucks on the West Coast increased last week sequentially (+2%) and was negative on a YoY basis (-5%); truck spot rates on the West Coast were up +56% YoY ex-fuel.

What the Tracker Is: What We Disseminate Weekly: High frequency data to help assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains and the accompanying ramifications on the flows of freight (e.g., expected ships leaving from China to USA). While we think our data set is representative, we do plan to periodically add new data series as they become available.

It is important to recognize that weekly data can be volatile, with a fair bit of noise depending on timing—but we still think looking at the data collectively, and perhaps over a multi-week basis can be informative as to tariff-related trends.

2026 Trade and Transport Scenario Roadmap—Revised From First and Second Edition: As we moved past the 2025 homestretch and into 2026, the ability to find a profit and earnings bottom and eventually see an earnings upgrade cycle comes down to one thing: volume growth, with an appropriate weighting towards higher margin business-to-business, commercial and/or manufacturing flows. Recent improved share price performance from the trucking sector could perhaps be tied to the notion that volumes (and in terms of truckload - supply) could indeed be at a more stable point with which improvement could come from at some point in 2026.

Ramifications from tariff-related uncertainty that caused pull-forward in demand—bracketed by shipper indecision as to how much product to manufacture and/or order for inventory—had been a culprit behind transports broad underperformance for much of 2025 and tied…