US Tariff Impact Tracker Indicated Imports into LA to Decrease Next Week And Sharply Increase Two Weeks Out

Equity Research 14 September 2026 | 5:00AM EDT

US Tariff Impact Tracker: Indicated Imports into LA to Decrease Next Week And Sharply Increase Two Weeks Out

US Tariff Impact Tracker: This past week, laden vessels from China to USA were Jordan Alliger | down sequentially (-11% WoW) and up on a YoY basis (+3% YoY). Data suggests Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC TEUs coming into Port of LA will decrease next week (-13% WoW) following this Paul Stoddard past week’s +11% sequential move before seeing an increase of +36% WoW two | weeks out (YoY is expected to be -12% and then +39% one week and two weeks Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

out). What we will need to monitor is how levels move through September, which Andrzej Tomczyk, CFA | could suggest how shippers are deciding to restock, how peak could be starting (and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC whether there was an early start to peak shipping this spring), and within some cases how lower effective tariff rates impact import decisions amidst an uncertain Aakarsh Goyal | geopolitical backdrop. We highlight that trucking activity on the West Coast, Goldman Sachs India SPL reflected in load availability and spot rates, has shown a meaningful decline over July and August, which could indicate some level of pull forward activity occurred in May/June but is now tapering off. That said, with imports into LA still pointing to YoY growth, as well as intermodal volumes remaining positive, we could see West Coast trucking stabilize (most recent week loads largely unchanged and up +16% WoW the week prior), and if order activity picks up, we could see rates and loads pick back up through the end of the year.

Trade uncertainty remains prevalent in global trade.

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Goldman Sachs US Tariff Impact Tracker

Key observations from this past week’s report:

n China freight flows (week ending Thursday, September 10th) showed a sequential decrease in laden vessels from China to the US (-11%) with a positive YoY at +3% (vs +26% in the prior week). n Port Optimizer sequentials indicate imports into the Port of Los Angeles are set to be down -13% TEUs (September 18) while the early read suggests an increase of +36% on a two-week out basis; on a YoY basis, imports into LA are set turn negative at -12% and then turn positive at +39% two-week out. n Rail intermodal volumes along the West Coast were up +20% YoY following last week’s +7% performance. Note that Labor Day timing impacts YoY higher. n Ocean container rates were up +3% sequentially; rates on a YoY basis were up 3.4x YoY this past week. We anticipate some choppiness could remain over the coming weeks as global capacity potentially shifts given ongoing geopolitical events. n Load availability for trucks on the West Coast remained largely unchanged last week sequentially and was positive on a YoY basis (+6%); truck spot rates on the West Coast were up +18% YoY ex-fuel.

What the Tracker Is: What We Disseminate Weekly: High frequency data to help assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains and the accompanying ramifications on the flows of freight (e.g., expected ships leaving from China to USA). While we think our data set is representative, we do plan to periodically add new data series as they become available.

It is important to recognize that weekly data can be volatile, with a fair bit of noise depending on timing—but we still think looking at the data collectively, and perhaps over a multi-week basis can be informative as to tariff-related trends.

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