USA S&P PMIs Mixed as Services Increase but Manufacturing Edges Down

Economics Research 24 July 2026 | 11:44AM EDT

USA: S&P PMIs Mixed as Services Increase but Manufacturing Edges Down; New Home Sales Somewhat Above Expectations; Boosting Q2

BOTTOM LINE: The S&P Global US services PMI increased in July, above consensus Jan Hatzius | expectations, and its underlying composition was strong, with increases in both the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

new business and employment components. The S&P Global US manufacturing PMI David Mericle | edged down, against consensus expectations for a small increase. Its underlying Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC composition was mixed, with an increase in the employment component after a sharp decline in June but decreases in the output and new orders components. New Alec Phillips | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC home sales increased in June, somewhat above expectations, and May sales were revised up. We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6% Ronnie Walker | (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC +2.6%. Elsie Peng | US MAP: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Pierfrancesco Mei New home sales 0 (2, 0) | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC KEY NUMBERS: Jessica Rindels | S&P Global US services PMI 53.6 for July (preliminary), median forecast 51.5, prior Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 51.2

S&P Global US manufacturing PMI 53.8 for July (preliminary), median forecast 54.4, prior 53.9

New home sales +1.6% (628k SAAR) for June vs. GS +3.0% (590k), median forecast +4.8% (607k), prior revised -4.3% (618k)

1. The S&P Global US services PMI increased by 2.4pt to 53.6 in July, above consensus expectations. The underlying composition was strong, as both the new business (+2.0pt to 53.7) and employment (+1.2pt to 50.6) components increased. The input prices (+2.3pt to 62.2) and output prices (+1.1pt to 58.9) components both increased. The future output index increased by 2.3pt to 64.9 (NSA).

2. The S&P Global US manufacturing PMI edged down in July (-0.1pt to 53.8), against consensus expectations for a small increase. The underlying composition was mixed, as the employment component increased (+4.1pt to 51.2) after a sharp decline in June but the output (-2.6pt to 53.6) and new orders (-1.3pt to 53.4) components declined. Both the input prices (-0.3pt to 68.0) and output prices (-0.9pt to 60.1) components edged down for the second consecutive month, after reaching in May their highest levels since July and September 2022, respectively. The future output index declined by 0.4pt to 66.5 (NSA).

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3. Commentary from S&P highlighted that July “saw an encouraging return to hiring by companies, with employment rising for the first time in three months,” but added that “some of this improvement may prove short-lived as July saw hospitality spending boosted by the FIFA World Cup and USA 250 anniversary activities.” Additionally, it noted “a concerning intensification of supply chain delays and accompanying renewed upturn in price pressures, constraining growth and subduing demand.”

4. Sales of new single-family homes rose by 1.6% to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 628k units in June, somewhat above expectations. May sales were revised up by 38k to 618k units. June sales increased in the South (+9.9%), Northeast (+3.6%) and Midwest (+2.5%), but declined sharply for the second consecutive month in the West (-22.4%).

5. We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at +2.6%.