USA White House Announces New Tariffs With Little Change to the US Effective Tariff Rate

Economics Research 24 July 2026 | 7:05AM EDT

USA: White House Announces New Tariffs With Little Change to the US Effective Tariff Rate

BOTTOM LINE: The White House released the final version of the Sec. 301 tariffs it Jan Hatzius | will use to replace the current 10% Sec. 122 global tariff, which expires July 24. The Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

details of the release suggest there should be little change to the overall US effective David Mericle | tariff rate. Some individual trading partners will see their ETRs move higher or lower, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC but generally not by much more than 1pp in either direction. Alec Phillips | 1. The White House announced a new set of tariffs to replace the current 10% global Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC tariff under Sec. 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which expires July 24. Following a Sec. Ronnie Walker | 301 investigation into forced labor, the US Trade Representative (USTR) has released Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC a final list of tariffs covering trading partners accounting for 95% of US imports. There would be four levels of tariffs: a 10% cap (inclusive of the preexisting MFN Elsie Peng | tariff), a 10% add-on tariff, a 12.5% cap, and a 12.5% add-on tariff. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Pierfrancesco Mei 2. While the prior version of these tariffs, released in June, would have raised the US | effective tariff rate (ETR) slightly (+0.25pp), the final version just released should Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

leave the ETR essentially unchanged (-0.1pp) because of four revisions USTR made: Jessica Rindels | (1) the tariff rate for several large trading partners was changed to a cap (including Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC the MFN rate) of 10% (EU and Taiwan) or 12.5% (Japan, Korea, and Switzerland) rather than a tariff on top of the MFN rate; (2) several trading partners including Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Malaysia, and the UK will face a 10% rate, rather than the 12.5% proposed in the earlier version (Taiwan moves from 12.5% add-on to a 10% maximum, like the EU); (3) product exclusions for specific trading partners in recent trade deals are now reflected, and (4) some new products were added to the exclusion list for all trading partners. In general, most of the trading partners getting the lower 10% rate in the final version have a recent trade deal with the US.

3. The change in each trading partner’s tariff rate compared with the expiring Sec. 122 policy would be modest, with only a few instances of changes greater than 1pp. The EU (-0.9pp), Indonesia (-0.9pp), and Korea (-0.7pp) would see the largest declines in their US ETR as a result of the shift from Sec. 122 to the new Sec. 301 rates, while Turkey (+1.5pp), China (+1.4pp), the Philippines (+0.8pp), Vietnam (+0.8pp), Singapore (+0.6pp) and Thailand (+0.6pp) would see the largest increases.

4. The USTR did not announce any new actions related to the other Sec. 301 investigation into 16 trading partners on manufacturing overcapacity, which was started around the same time as the just-concluded investigation. While this could still come in the next few weeks, we still believe that whatever tariffs come out of that second investigation won’t take effect until after the midterm election, and we continue to expect a roughly unchanged US ETR through the end of 2026.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Reg AC We, Jan Hatzius, David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Ronnie Walker, Elsie Peng, Pierfrancesco Mei and Jessica Rindels, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division. Contributing Authors: Jan Hatzius Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, David Mericle Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Alec Phillips Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Ronnie Walker Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Elsie Peng Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Pierfrancesco Mei Goldman Sachs…