Weekly investment commentary en us 20260803 a quiet august not for investors

CAPITAL AT RISK. INVESTMENTS CAN RISE OR FALL IN VALUE. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, LATIN AMERICA, ​ SELECT COUNTRIES IN EUROPE (SEE THE FULL DISCLAIMER), ISRAEL, SOUTH AFRICA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. ​ FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.

Weekly commentary August 3, 2026

A quiet August? Not for investors. • AI, oil and government bond yields are all sending the same message: scarcity is shaping markets and keeping borrowing costs higher. Jean Boivin Head – BlackRock • The sell-off in long-dated U.S. Treasuries pushed the 30-year yield to a 19-year Investment Institute high of 5.28% as markets reassessed the Fed’s reaction function.

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls take the spotlight this week, offering clues on whether Wei Li labor market conditions are consistent with our high-for-longer rate view. Global Chief Investment Investors hoping August will bring a summer lull may be disappointed. Oil prices Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute are swinging with every twist in the Middle East conflict, while AI earnings and spending plans are driving sharp moves in stocks. Alongside the repricing in government bond yields, these developments underscore our long-held view of a Ehsan Khoman world shaped by supply scarcity keeping inflation and borrowing costs higher. For Economist — BlackRock investors, the role of government bonds has shifted: less ballast, more income. Investment Institute

The real deal 10-year real government bond yields across major developed markets, 2010–2026 Michel Dilmanian Portfolio Strategist – 2.2% BlackRock Investment 2% 1.6% Institute

-2% U.S. UK -3% Germany Japan -4% Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream, July 2026. Notes: Chart shows 10-year inflation- adjusted government bond yields for the U.S., U.K., Germany and Japan. Visit BlackRock Investment Institute for insights on the The steepening of the two-year/30-year Treasury yield curve after last week’s global economy, markets Federal Reserve meeting reflects growing inflation worries and uncertainty over and geopolitics. how the Fed will respond. We see this not as new but as a continuation of the broader macro regime we have described for several years. The fastest AI investment buildout in history is unfolding in a world shaped by supply scarcity, where energy constraints, tight labor markets and geopolitical fragmentation are shifting the focus from efficiency to resilience. Meanwhile, governments and hyperscalers are drawing on the same pool of savings, intensifying competition for capital. These forces are pushing investors to demand higher returns to lend for longer, lifting real yields across developed markets. See the chart. That broader repricing underpins today’s investment backdrop.

FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.,CAPITAL CANADA,ATLATIN RISK. AMERICA, AUSTRIA, INVESTMENTS CANGERMANY, FRANCE, RISE OR FALL ITALY, IN VALUE. LIECHTENSTEIN, FOR IRELAND,INSPAIN, PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION PORTUGUAL, THE U.S., BELGIUM, CANADA, LATIN UK, LUXEMBOURG, AMERICA, ​ SWITZERLAND, NETHERLANDS, NORWAY, SELECT FINLAND, COUNTRIES SWEDEN,(SEE IN EUROPE DENMARK, ISRAEL, THE FULL SOUTH AFRICA, DISCLAIMER), ISRAEL,HONG SOUTHKONG, SINGAPORE AFRICA, AND AUSTRALIA. HONG KONG, SINGAPOREFORANDINSTITUTIONAL, AUSTRALIA. ​ FORPROFESSIONAL, INSTITUTIONAL,QUALIFIED INVESTORS PROFESSIONAL, AND AND QUALIFIED QUALIFIED CLIENTS INVESTORS IN OTHER AND PERMITTED CLIENTS IN COUNTRIES.COUNTRIES. OTHER PERMITTED

The global repricing of long-term bond yields has come a long way. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen from less than 1% six years ago to nearly 5% today. German 10-year yields recently reached a 15-year high and Japanese 10-year yields have approached 3% for the first time since the mid-1990s. The structural forces behind higher bond yields have been building for several years but intensified this year. What was already the fastest AI investment boom in history has accelerated further, with consensus forecasts for hyperscaler capital spending in 2026 revised about 30% higher over the past six months to $720 billion. Greater sovereign borrowing and…