SMIC (0981.HK) AI to drive 2H26 growth; strongest revenues QoQ in 2Q26 among global top 10 foundries; Buy
- SMIC Revenue Growth & China AI Demand: Q226 QoQ revenue growth at 20% (vs. top 10 foundries’ 11.5% avg), driven by China’s generative AI trend, localization, and +15% YoY China Semis Capex growth in 2026-28E.
- AI Chip TAM & Capex Allocation: China’s AI chip TAM to reach US$4.123bn by 2030 (base case), with SMIC allocating 54-71% of capex to 7nm/advanced nodes, supported by strong analog/power IC demand.
- US Geopolitical Risk: BIS Entity List restrictions threaten critical equipment/material supply, posing a direct operational and growth risk for SMIC.
- 2H26 Revenue Outlook: Q3/Q4 2026 revenues projected at +12% Hoh, +27% YoY; capacity tightness for AI chips supports stable ASPs despite rising depreciation.