FX Comment
- **Term Premiums Drive Dollar Weakness**: FOMC's lack of forward guidance raised US yields, triggering a record 5th percentile dollar decline (worst since 2008) and pushing USDSEK lower, amplified by US tariff/geopolitical skepticism.
- **Term Premiums Dominate FX Volatility**: Regression shows term premiums explain 80% of USDJPY volatility vs.
- 45% for 10-yr yields alone, indicating JPY was disproportionately punished during financial repression; rising premiums risk reversing the strong dollar trend.
- **Geopolitical Policy & Carry Trade Risks**: Wash's weak-dollar policy aligns with Trump-era tactics, with BoJ intervention timing (post-FOMC) signaling coordination; low-volatility currencies (JPY, SEK) underperforming higher-yield assets (USD, AUD) in carry trades amid cooling retail US equity demand, threatening USDSEK reversal.