Stocks股票 / Financials / CG
Carlyle Group (The) · Financials
CG US listed · USD美股 · 美元
The Carlyle Group Inc. is an American multinational company with operations in private equity, alternative asset management and financial services.凯雷集团是一家在私募股权、另类资产管理和金融服务领域运营的美国跨国公司。
Large cap大盘 · $16B
Financial金融股
Financials
S&P 400标普400中盘
$44.74
-$1.33 · -2.89%
52w low52周低 $39.65high高 $68.85
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
A normal mid-cycle dip below the 10-day average — the real cycle low isn't due for ~9+ trading days. Wait for support to hold, or for the next low to set up.这是跌破 10 日均线的正常周期中段回调——真正的周期低点要到约 9+ 个交易日后才会到来。等待支撑站稳，或等下一个低点构筑成形。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
51
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-0.7% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-13.8% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
70th percentile第70百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-08-0415days to go天后公布
Estimates being cut预期下调
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | CG | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 19.77x | 14.95 | |
| P/S市销率 | 3.35x | 2.84 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 5.06% | 6.65 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 7.45% | 3.94 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 10.2%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 17.6%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Net margin净利率
16.9%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
-68.5%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 1/6
Watch关注
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$686.5M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$374.7M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.1%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Short-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate tailwind.短久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率顺风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$58.7M net (0 buyers, 1 sellers)-$58.7M 净值（0 买家，1 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.2% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UPTREND → NEARING A LOW上涨趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY. Mixed structure. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell准备。结构混合。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Jul 17, 2026
BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 17, 2026
CG weekly MACD crossed upCG 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 14, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 6, 2026
CG daily MACD crossed upCG 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $44.04.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$44.04。
Jul 1, 2026
DOWNTREND → NEARING A LOW下跌趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 1, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 1, 2026
CG StochRSI turned up from oversoldCG StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $42.33.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$42.33。
Jun 29, 2026
CG printed a daily-cycle lowCG 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $40.52.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$40.52。
Jun 29, 2026
CG made a new 52-week lowCG 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $40.52.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$40.52。
Jun 24, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jun 24, 2026
CG made a new 52-week lowCG 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $41.06.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$41.06。
Jun 24, 2026
CG daily MACD crossed downCG 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $41.06.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$41.06。
Jun 18, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jun 18, 2026
CG broke down vs the marketCG 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $44.80.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$44.80。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 257 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
The Carlyle Group Inc. is an American multinational company with operations in private equity, alternative asset management and financial services.凯雷集团是一家在私募股权、另类资产管理和金融服务领域运营的美国跨国公司。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 19.8× | 14.9× | 25% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 3.4× | 2.8× | 46% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 5.1% | 6.7% | 28% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | -20.5% | 8.2% | 3% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 7.5% | 3.9% | 81% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
33/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
11/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
6/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
12/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#198 / 252
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +1.4% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -0.1% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -13.5% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -27.3% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -25.5% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -23.7% | +19.2% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +41.7% | +69.9% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.56
Volatility rank波动率分位
70th pctile
Short interest空头占比
4.8% of float
Market cap市值
$16B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$2.26
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-34.2%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $2.9B | $8.8B | $4.4B | $3.0B | $5.4B | $4.8B |
| EPS每股收益 | $0.97 | $8.20 | $3.35 | $-1.68 | $2.77 | $2.18 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $-230M | $1.7B | $-420M | $138M | $-837M | $-3.4B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin净利率 | 11.9% | 33.9% | 27.6% | -20.5% | 18.8% | 16.9% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | -7.9% | 19.9% | -9.5% | 4.7% | -15.4% | -70.6% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$4.8B
Net income净利润
$809M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$-3.3B
Total assets总资产
$29.1B
Dividends paid股息支出
$505M
Buybacks股票回购
$686M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.36B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on assets资产回报率
2.8%
Profit growth利润增速
-20.7%
Asset growth资产增速
+26.0%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Capital discipline: assets +26.0% (aggressive expansion)资本纪律：资产 +26.0%（扩张激进）
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
51
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
16
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+2.5%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-0.7%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-13.8%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
50/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
2
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-4.4%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+0
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.2% | $12M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
1 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-15', 'holders_series': [1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-15', 'holders_series': [1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$58.7M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 1
Short interest空头占流通盘
4.8%
Days to cover回补天数
3.5
Short interest change空头变化
+4.2%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Jul · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Jan · 33%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 33% | -0.1% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 33% | -10.3% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 33% | -6.7% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 33% | -4.3% | 3 |
| May5月 | 33% | -2.6% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 50% | +1.9% | 4 |
| Jul7月 | 100% | +16.9% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 33% | -8.0% | 3 |
| Sep9月 | 33% | -2.5% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 33% | -8.7% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 100% | +7.6% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 67% | +8.4% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。