China Banks中国银行
GSXACHBA
idx指数 4407 · 2014–2026
beaten down深度超跌overheated过热
Fwd 6m up-rate未来6月上涨率
75% / base基准 54%
when setup is in its top third当配置处于自身历史高位三分之一时 (not today今日不在此区间) · lift超额 -7–41pp · n=20mo月 (n_eff≈5.1)
Median fwd 6m未来6月中位
+3.70%
vs base对比基准 +1.40%
breadth (contrarian)广度反向 +1.1credit cycle信用周期 -0.8washout / mean-reversion超卖回归 -0.7input-cost (PPI)PPI 成本 -0.6
China Banks sits at cycle position 94/100 (Overheated). Today's driver setup is in its low third. Months with a high driver setup were historically roughly neutral on the 6-month odds (forward-6m positive 75% of the time vs 54% base, n_months=20, n_eff≈5.1; the band includes the base rate). Today is outside that cohort. Composite from 2019-01-31 (all 4 legs live). Bullish legs: breadth (contrarian). Headwinds: credit cycle, washout / mean-reversion, input-cost (PPI).中国银行周期位置 94/100（过热）。当前驱动配置处于历史低位区间。历史上高位配置月份，未来6个月上涨占比约 75%（基准 54%，月度样本 20，有效 n≈5.1），整体大致中性（区间包含基准）。今日不在此区间。（复合指标自 2019-01-31 起，全部 4 项因子齐备）
Last major turn最近主要拐点: bottom底 2022-10-31 · 4B底/3T顶 (≥25% zigzag)（≥25% 折线）
bottom底 2022-10-31 · 2738.0top顶 2021-02-18 · 4247.9bottom底 2018-07-02 · 3048.5top顶 2018-02-05 · 4268.2bottom底 2015-08-25 · 2593.2top顶 2015-06-08 · 4145.0bottom底 2014-03-10 · 1917.1
Conditional, display-only context — not a forecast or a buy signal. Phase 0 found no China driver clears a strict significance bar on monthly sector returns; this summarizes the sign-stable lead cluster honestly. The composite is a fixed constituent set, defined only from the month all legs are live (see composition), and its interval is a date-blocked bootstrap on overlapping windows — so the cohort is short but the number is one feature.仅为条件化展示，非预测或买卖信号。Phase 0 检验显示无单一驱动能通过严格显著性门槛，此处仅诚实汇总符号稳定的领先因子组合。复合指标为固定因子集合，仅在全部因子齐备后定义，置信区间采用按日期分块的自助法（考虑窗口重叠），样本较短但口径一致。
China Consumption中国消费
GSXACCON
idx指数 4292 · 2000–2026
beaten down深度超跌overheated过热
Fwd 6m up-rate未来6月上涨率
37% / base基准 46%
when setup is in its top third当配置处于自身历史高位三分之一时 (not today今日不在此区间) · lift超额 -34–15pp · n=24mo月 (n_eff≈5.7)
Median fwd 6m未来6月中位
-5.40%
vs base对比基准 -1.00%
breadth (contrarian)广度反向 +1.1credit cycle信用周期 -0.8input-cost (PPI)PPI 成本 -0.6washout / mean-reversion超卖回归 +0.6
China Consumption sits at cycle position 9/100 (Beaten down). Today's driver setup is in its mid third. Months with a high driver setup were historically roughly neutral on the 6-month odds (forward-6m positive 37% of the time vs 46% base, n_months=24, n_eff≈5.7; the band includes the base rate). Today is outside that cohort. Composite from 2019-01-31 (all 4 legs live). Bullish legs: breadth (contrarian), washout / mean-reversion. Headwinds: credit cycle, input-cost (PPI).中国消费周期位置 9/100（深度超跌）。当前驱动配置处于历史中位区间。历史上高位配置月份，未来6个月上涨占比约 37%（基准 46%，月度样本 24，有效 n≈5.7），整体大致中性（区间包含基准）。今日不在此区间。（复合指标自 2019-01-31 起，全部 4 项因子齐备）
Last major turn最近主要拐点: bottom底 2024-09-18 · 11B底/11T顶 (≥25% zigzag)（≥25% 折线）
bottom底 2024-09-18 · 3837.0top顶 2023-02-13 · 6294.5bottom底 2022-10-31 · 5008.6top顶 2021-02-19 · 7469.8bottom底 2018-10-29 · 3824.3top顶 2018-01-23 · 5887.8bottom底 2016-01-28 · 4277.4top顶 2015-12-22 · 6055.3 · +14 earlier turns更早拐点
Conditional, display-only context — not a forecast or a buy signal. Phase 0 found no China driver clears a strict significance bar on monthly sector returns; this summarizes the sign-stable lead cluster honestly. The composite is a fixed constituent set, defined only from the month all legs are live (see composition), and its interval is a date-blocked bootstrap on overlapping windows — so the cohort is short but the number is one feature.仅为条件化展示，非预测或买卖信号。Phase 0 检验显示无单一驱动能通过严格显著性门槛，此处仅诚实汇总符号稳定的领先因子组合。复合指标为固定因子集合，仅在全部因子齐备后定义，置信区间采用按日期分块的自助法（考虑窗口重叠），样本较短但口径一致。
China Real Estate中国地产
GSXACNRE
idx指数 1706 · 1999–2026
beaten down深度超跌overheated过热
Fwd 6m up-rate未来6月上涨率
41% / base基准 33%
when setup is in its top third当配置处于自身历史高位三分之一时 (not today今日不在此区间) · lift超额 -12–38pp · n=24mo月 (n_eff≈6.0)
Median fwd 6m未来6月中位
-7.30%
vs base对比基准 -6.90%
breadth (contrarian)广度反向 +1.1credit cycle信用周期 -0.8input-cost (PPI)PPI 成本 -0.6
China Real Estate sits at cycle position 14/100 (Beaten down). Today's driver setup is in its mid third. Months with a high driver setup were historically roughly neutral on the 6-month odds (forward-6m positive 41% of the time vs 33% base, n_months=24, n_eff≈6.0; the band includes the base rate). Today is outside that cohort. Composite from 2019-01-31 (all 4 legs live). Bullish legs: breadth (contrarian). Headwinds: credit cycle, input-cost (PPI).中国地产周期位置 14/100（深度超跌）。当前驱动配置处于历史中位区间。历史上高位配置月份，未来6个月上涨占比约 41%（基准 33%，月度样本 24，有效 n≈6.0），整体大致中性（区间包含基准）。今日不在此区间。（复合指标自 2019-01-31 起，全部 4 项因子齐备）
Last major turn最近主要拐点: top顶 2025-11-17 · 19B底/20T顶 (≥25% zigzag)（≥25% 折线）
top顶 2025-11-17 · 2436.2bottom底 2025-04-07 · 1871.0top顶 2024-11-07 · 2656.5bottom底 2024-08-28 · 1627.8top顶 2024-05-17 · 2245.5bottom底 2024-04-24 · 1746.8top顶 2022-11-29 · 3349.3bottom底 2022-10-31 · 2577.3 · +31 earlier turns更早拐点
Conditional, display-only context — not a forecast or a buy signal. Phase 0 found no China driver clears a strict significance bar on monthly sector returns; this summarizes the sign-stable lead cluster honestly. The composite is a fixed constituent set, defined only from the month all legs are live (see composition), and its interval is a date-blocked bootstrap on overlapping windows — so the cohort is short but the number is one feature.仅为条件化展示，非预测或买卖信号。Phase 0 检验显示无单一驱动能通过严格显著性门槛，此处仅诚实汇总符号稳定的领先因子组合。复合指标为固定因子集合，仅在全部因子齐备后定义，置信区间采用按日期分块的自助法（考虑窗口重叠），样本较短但口径一致。
China Auto中国汽车
GSXACNAU
idx指数 5738 · 2014–2026
beaten down深度超跌overheated过热
Fwd 6m up-rate未来6月上涨率
52% / base基准 63%
when setup is in its top third当配置处于自身历史高位三分之一时 · lift超额 -36–13pp · n=19mo月 (n_eff≈5.7)
Median fwd 6m未来6月中位
+0.40%
vs base对比基准 +4.20%
breadth (contrarian)广度反向 +1.1washout / mean-reversion超卖回归 +1.1credit cycle信用周期 -0.8input-cost (PPI)PPI 成本 -0.6
China Auto sits at cycle position 1/100 (Beaten down). Today's driver setup is in its high third. Months with a high driver setup were historically roughly neutral on the 6-month odds (forward-6m positive 52% of the time vs 63% base, n_months=19, n_eff≈5.7; the band includes the base rate). Composite from 2019-01-31 (all 4 legs live). Bullish legs: breadth (contrarian), washout / mean-reversion. Headwinds: credit cycle, input-cost (PPI).中国汽车周期位置 1/100（深度超跌）。当前驱动配置处于历史高位区间。历史上高位配置月份，未来6个月上涨占比约 52%（基准 63%，月度样本 19，有效 n≈5.7），整体大致中性（区间包含基准）。（复合指标自 2019-01-31 起，全部 4 项因子齐备）
Last major turn最近主要拐点: top顶 2026-01-23 · 8B底/8T顶 (≥25% zigzag)（≥25% 折线）
top顶 2026-01-23 · 8425.6bottom底 2024-02-05 · 4351.3top顶 2022-08-01 · 6946.3bottom底 2022-04-26 · 4432.2top顶 2021-12-02 · 7121.9bottom底 2019-08-07 · 3450.0top顶 2019-04-17 · 4695.6bottom底 2018-10-18 · 3244.5 · +8 earlier turns更早拐点
Conditional, display-only context — not a forecast or a buy signal. Phase 0 found no China driver clears a strict significance bar on monthly sector returns; this summarizes the sign-stable lead cluster honestly. The composite is a fixed constituent set, defined only from the month all legs are live (see composition), and its interval is a date-blocked bootstrap on overlapping windows — so the cohort is short but the number is one feature.仅为条件化展示，非预测或买卖信号。Phase 0 检验显示无单一驱动能通过严格显著性门槛，此处仅诚实汇总符号稳定的领先因子组合。复合指标为固定因子集合，仅在全部因子齐备后定义，置信区间采用按日期分块的自助法（考虑窗口重叠），样本较短但口径一致。