China Banks中国银行
GSXACHBA
idx指数 4241 · 2014–2026
beaten down深度超跌overheated过热
Fwd 6m up-rate未来6月上涨率
73% / base基准 53%
when setup ~ today当配置类似今日 · lift超额 2–37pp · n=19mo月 (n_eff≈1.1)
Median fwd 6m未来6月中位
+3.30%
vs base对比基准 +1.30%
breadth (contrarian)广度反向 +0.7input-cost (PPI)PPI 成本 -0.6credit cycle信用周期 -0.6washout / mean-reversion超卖回归 -0.3
China Banks sits at cycle position 81/100 (Stretched). Today's driver setup is in its low third — historically that leaned the odds DOWN (forward-6m positive 73% of the time vs 53% base, n_months=19, n_eff≈1.1; the band excludes the base rate). Composite from 2019-01-31 (all 4 legs live). Bullish legs: breadth (contrarian). Headwinds: input-cost (PPI), credit cycle, washout / mean-reversion.中国银行周期位置 81/100（走高偏贵）。当前驱动配置处于历史低位区间。历史上此类配置下，未来6个月上涨概率约 73%（基准 53%，月度样本 19，有效 n≈1.1）。（复合指标自 2019-01-31 起，全部 4 项因子齐备）
Last major turn最近主要拐点: bottom底 2022-10-31 · 4B底/3T顶 (≥25% zigzag)（≥25% 折线）
Conditional, display-only context — not a forecast or a buy signal. Phase 0 found no China driver clears a strict significance bar on monthly sector returns; this summarizes the sign-stable lead cluster honestly. The composite is a fixed constituent set, defined only from the month all legs are live (see composition), and its interval is a date-blocked bootstrap on overlapping windows — so the cohort is short but the number is one feature.仅为条件化展示，非预测或买卖信号。Phase 0 检验显示无单一驱动能通过严格显著性门槛，此处仅诚实汇总符号稳定的领先因子组合。复合指标为固定因子集合，仅在全部因子齐备后定义，置信区间采用按日期分块的自助法（考虑窗口重叠），样本较短但口径一致。
China Consumption中国消费
GSXACCON
idx指数 4574 · 2000–2026
beaten down深度超跌overheated过热
Fwd 6m up-rate未来6月上涨率
39% / base基准 46%
when setup ~ today当配置类似今日 · lift超额 -25–10pp · n=23mo月 (n_eff≈1.1)
Median fwd 6m未来6月中位
-4.90%
vs base对比基准 -0.90%
breadth (contrarian)广度反向 +0.7input-cost (PPI)PPI 成本 -0.6credit cycle信用周期 -0.6washout / mean-reversion超卖回归 +0.5
China Consumption sits at cycle position 20/100 (Recovering). Today's driver setup is in its mid third — historically that was roughly neutral (forward-6m positive 39% of the time vs 46% base, n_months=23, n_eff≈1.1; but the band does not exclude the base rate). Composite from 2019-01-31 (all 4 legs live). Bullish legs: breadth (contrarian), washout / mean-reversion. Headwinds: input-cost (PPI), credit cycle.中国消费周期位置 20/100（修复回升）。当前驱动配置处于历史中位区间。历史上此类配置下，未来6个月上涨概率约 39%（基准 46%，月度样本 23，有效 n≈1.1）。（复合指标自 2019-01-31 起，全部 4 项因子齐备）
Last major turn最近主要拐点: bottom底 2024-09-18 · 11B底/11T顶 (≥25% zigzag)（≥25% 折线）
Conditional, display-only context — not a forecast or a buy signal. Phase 0 found no China driver clears a strict significance bar on monthly sector returns; this summarizes the sign-stable lead cluster honestly. The composite is a fixed constituent set, defined only from the month all legs are live (see composition), and its interval is a date-blocked bootstrap on overlapping windows — so the cohort is short but the number is one feature.仅为条件化展示，非预测或买卖信号。Phase 0 检验显示无单一驱动能通过严格显著性门槛，此处仅诚实汇总符号稳定的领先因子组合。复合指标为固定因子集合，仅在全部因子齐备后定义，置信区间采用按日期分块的自助法（考虑窗口重叠），样本较短但口径一致。
China Real Estate中国地产
GSXACNRE
idx指数 1837 · 1999–2026
beaten down深度超跌overheated过热
Fwd 6m up-rate未来6月上涨率
43% / base基准 33%
when setup ~ today当配置类似今日 · lift超额 -8–27pp · n=23mo月 (n_eff≈1.1)
Median fwd 6m未来6月中位
-7.70%
vs base对比基准 -6.90%
breadth (contrarian)广度反向 +0.7input-cost (PPI)PPI 成本 -0.6credit cycle信用周期 -0.6
China Real Estate sits at cycle position 29/100 (Recovering). Today's driver setup is in its mid third — historically that was roughly neutral (forward-6m positive 43% of the time vs 33% base, n_months=23, n_eff≈1.1; but the band does not exclude the base rate). Composite from 2019-01-31 (all 4 legs live). Bullish legs: breadth (contrarian). Headwinds: input-cost (PPI), credit cycle.中国地产周期位置 29/100（修复回升）。当前驱动配置处于历史中位区间。历史上此类配置下，未来6个月上涨概率约 43%（基准 33%，月度样本 23，有效 n≈1.1）。（复合指标自 2019-01-31 起，全部 4 项因子齐备）
Last major turn最近主要拐点: top顶 2025-11-17 · 19B底/20T顶 (≥25% zigzag)（≥25% 折线）
Conditional, display-only context — not a forecast or a buy signal. Phase 0 found no China driver clears a strict significance bar on monthly sector returns; this summarizes the sign-stable lead cluster honestly. The composite is a fixed constituent set, defined only from the month all legs are live (see composition), and its interval is a date-blocked bootstrap on overlapping windows — so the cohort is short but the number is one feature.仅为条件化展示，非预测或买卖信号。Phase 0 检验显示无单一驱动能通过严格显著性门槛，此处仅诚实汇总符号稳定的领先因子组合。复合指标为固定因子集合，仅在全部因子齐备后定义，置信区间采用按日期分块的自助法（考虑窗口重叠），样本较短但口径一致。
China Auto中国汽车
GSXACNAU
idx指数 6284 · 2014–2026
beaten down深度超跌overheated过热
Fwd 6m up-rate未来6月上涨率
55% / base基准 64%
when setup ~ today当配置类似今日 · lift超额 -29–11pp · n=18mo月 (n_eff≈1.1)
Median fwd 6m未来6月中位
+1.90%
vs base对比基准 +4.50%
washout / mean-reversion超卖回归 +1.0breadth (contrarian)广度反向 +0.7input-cost (PPI)PPI 成本 -0.6credit cycle信用周期 -0.6
China Auto sits at cycle position 5/100 (Beaten down). Today's driver setup is in its high third — historically that was roughly neutral (forward-6m positive 55% of the time vs 64% base, n_months=18, n_eff≈1.1; but the band does not exclude the base rate). Composite from 2019-01-31 (all 4 legs live). Bullish legs: washout / mean-reversion, breadth (contrarian). Headwinds: input-cost (PPI), credit cycle.中国汽车周期位置 5/100（深度超跌）。当前驱动配置处于历史高位区间。历史上此类配置下，未来6个月上涨概率约 55%（基准 64%，月度样本 18，有效 n≈1.1）。（复合指标自 2019-01-31 起，全部 4 项因子齐备）
Last major turn最近主要拐点: top顶 2026-01-23 · 8B底/8T顶 (≥25% zigzag)（≥25% 折线）
Conditional, display-only context — not a forecast or a buy signal. Phase 0 found no China driver clears a strict significance bar on monthly sector returns; this summarizes the sign-stable lead cluster honestly. The composite is a fixed constituent set, defined only from the month all legs are live (see composition), and its interval is a date-blocked bootstrap on overlapping windows — so the cohort is short but the number is one feature.仅为条件化展示，非预测或买卖信号。Phase 0 检验显示无单一驱动能通过严格显著性门槛，此处仅诚实汇总符号稳定的领先因子组合。复合指标为固定因子集合，仅在全部因子齐备后定义，置信区间采用按日期分块的自助法（考虑窗口重叠），样本较短但口径一致。