Hong Kong Regime History

Regimes over the Hang Seng Index恒生指数周期叠加 ?The Hang Seng Index with the regime active at each time shaded behind it — how the classifier behaved in real conditions. Regime classification begins ~2006 (when the China macro series start); the chart shows the last 3 years over the Hang Seng Index.恒生指数走势，并以底色标出每个时段所处的周期 — 展示分类器在真实环境中的表现。周期分类自约 2006 年起（中国宏观数据起点）；图表显示恒生指数最近三年。

Goldilocks理想增长 — growth ↑ inflation ↓ (tech/quality/consumer)增长 ↑ 通胀 ↓（科技／质量／消费） Reflation再通胀 — growth ↑ inflation ↑ (commodities/brokers/property)增长 ↑ 通胀 ↑（大宗／券商／地产） Stagflation滞胀 — growth ↓ inflation ↑ (materials/banks/staples)增长 ↓ 通胀 ↑（材料／银行／必需消费） Growth scare增长恐慌 — growth ↓ inflation ↓ — measured-best contrarian bottom增长 ↓ 通胀 ↓ — 实测最佳的逆向底部

The two dials over time两大指标随时间变化 ?History of the growth (green) and inflation (red) scores, plus a third dotted line — the global-risk composite (gold). Zero-line crossings are regime changes; persistent readings near ±0.5 are strong regimes; near zero = mixed. The global-risk line shows the risk-on/off backdrop that drives Hong Kong roughly twice as hard as mainland A-shares.增长（绿）与通胀（红）评分的历史走势，外加第三条虚线 — 全球风险综合指标（金色）。穿越零轴即周期切换；持续接近 ±0.5 代表强周期；接近零 = 混杂。全球风险线反映风险偏好的整体环境，其对香港的影响约为内地 A 股的两倍。

Regime lifespans — base rates周期存续期 — 基准概率 ?Every regime period since ~2006 in this classifier: how many there were, how long they typically lasted, and where they went next. HK regimes are globally sensitive and shorter than the US — treat as context.本分类器自约 2006 年以来的每个周期时段：共出现多少次、通常持续多久、结束后转向何处。香港的周期受全球因素影响大、且比美国更短 — 仅作背景参考。

regime周期	periods次数	median length (days)存续中位数（天）	most common next最常见的下一周期
Goldilocks理想增长	39	32	Growth scare 56%, Reflation 28%增长恐慌 56%、再通胀 28%
Reflation再通胀	43	27	Stagflation 72%, Goldilocks 19%滞胀 72%、理想增长 19%
Stagflation滞胀	41	20	Reflation 72%, Growth scare 22%再通胀 72%、增长恐慌 22%
Growth scare增长恐慌	35	21	Goldilocks 80%, Stagflation 11%理想增长 80%、滞胀 11%

Hong Kong regime history香港周期历史