Historical Odds Desk历史胜率台
Today's market fingerprint — move size, VIX regime, market trend, macro quad and more — becomes a set of toggleable conditions. Every active condition filters up to 35 years of history down to the days that looked like today; the verdict is the empirical base rate of what happened next. No prediction, no model — counted history, with the unconditional base rate alongside so the edge is honest.今天的市场指纹——涨跌幅度、VIX 区间、大盘趋势、宏观象限等——变成一组可开关的条件。每个激活的条件把最长 35 年的历史过滤到与今天相似的交易日;结论就是随后走势的经验概率。不预测、不建模——只统计历史,并同时展示无条件基础概率,让优势诚实可见。
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Method. Returns are measured open-to-close: from the NEXT open to the close of the horizon end — what a trader could actually execute, never same-day hindsight. Buckets are computed with no look-ahead (ATR and volume baselines use only prior-day data). The verdict is colored by the edge versus the unconditional base rate over the same range and horizon — never by the raw win rate. Small samples are flagged, not hidden.方法。收益按开盘至收盘计量:从下一个开盘价到观察期末的收盘价——这是交易者真正可执行的口径,绝无当日后视。分桶计算无前视偏差(ATR 与成交量基线仅用前一日数据)。结论颜色由相对同范围、同观察期的无条件基础概率的优势决定——绝不按原始胜率着色。小样本会被标注,而不是被隐藏。
Roadmap (v2): earnings proximity & analyst-trend conditions, multi-day observed patterns, crypto symbols, arbitrary-combo universe scans. Historical base rates are descriptive statistics, not investment advice — the future is under no obligation to rhyme.路线图(v2):财报临近与分析师趋势条件、多日形态、加密资产、任意组合的全市场扫描。历史基础概率只是描述性统计,不构成投资建议——未来并无义务重复历史。