27 31st July 2026

27-31st July 2026 Highlights include: FOMC, BoE, BoJ, US PCE, US GDP, and EZ CPI • MON: BoC Market Participants Survey (Jul), Eurogroup Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Budget), Chinese Industrial Profits (Jun), German Ifo Expectations (Jul), US Durable Goods (Jun) • TUE: French Consumer Confidence (Jul), Spanish Retail Sales (Jun), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Goods Trade Balance Advance (Jun), Richmond Fed Manufacturing (Jul), Dallas Fed Services (Jul) • WED: Fed Policy Announcement (Jul), BoC Minutes (Jul), Australian CPI (Jun), Swedish GDP (Jun), Italian Industrial Sales (May) • THU: BoE Policy Announcement & MPR (Jul), CBRT Minutes (Jul), Australian Export/Import Prices (Q2), French/Spanish GDP (Q2), Spanish/German HICP (Jul), EZ GDP (Q2), Unemployment Rate (Jun), US PCE (Jun), GDP Advance (Q2), Jobless Claims • FRI: BoJ Policy Announcement (Jul), Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jun), Tokyo CPI (Jul), Retail Sales (Jun), Australian PPI (Q2), Chinese NBS PMIs (Jul), German Import Prices (Jun), Swiss Retail Sales (Jun), French HICP (Jul), PPI (Jun), German Unemployment Rate (Jul), EZ CPI (Jul), Italian HICP (Jul), Canadian GDP (May), US Employment Cost (Q2), UoM Final (Jul)

WEEK AHEAD CHINA POLITBURO MEETING (TBC): China's mid-year Politburo meeting is expected to take place next week, in line with its traditional late-July schedule, although the exact timing is not announced in advance. The meeting will review first-half economic performance and is expected to set the policy direction for the remainder of the year. Markets will watch for signals on whether Beijing will introduce additional fiscal support following the moderation in economic growth, as well as guidance on balancing support for domestic demand with its continued focus on advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries. Attention will also centre on any references to the property sector, consumption and financial stability after the PBoC's largest Medium-term Lending Facility liquidity injection in five months.

FED POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with markets assigning a 30-35% chance of a hike. A softer than expected June CPI report, weaker nonfarm payrolls and a BEA methodology change that analysts estimate will mechanically lower core inflation by about 0.2ppts (coming into effect in September) give the Committee room to wait. That would allow officials to assess how the Middle East conflict develops, particularly after the recent escalation between the US and Iran pushed energy prices higher again. Policymakers have previously cautioned against responding too quickly to what may prove to be a temporary shock. Even so, the Committee is unlikely to sound relaxed. Underlying inflation remains well above target, and the pressure extends beyond energy. Higher memory chip costs are beginning to feed through to consumer goods, while tariffs could return to the fore when the current Section 122 universal measures expire this week. For new Chair Kevin Warsh, the most likely outcome may therefore be a hawkish hold. In the June projections, nine of the 18 participants who submitted forecasts expected at least one rate rise this year. Since then, Governors Waller and Cook have indicated that they would consider tightening if disinflation stalls. Fed Presidents Logan, Hammack and Kashkari have also appeared open to moving sooner. Against that backdrop, there is scope for 2-4 possible dissents. Warsh has already shortened the Fed’s policy statement considerably, so even minor wording changes will be closely scrutinised. At the press conference, he is likely to face questions about the inflationary effects of the Middle East conflict, the newly announced task forces and whether the latest data could bring forward the timetable for action. Given Warsh’s distaste for forward guidance, he is unlikely to offer a clear signal. He will likely emphasise that all options remain open, and that future decisions will depend on the data.

BOC MINUTES (WED): The upcoming BoC minutes from the July meeting, at which the governing council kept rates unchanged at 2.25% as widely expected, are unlikely to differ materially…