AEJ Week Ahead China inflation and credit data, India inflation, and Singapore and Malaysia GDP

Economics Research 7 August 2026 | 3:21PM HKT

AEJ Week Ahead: China inflation and credit data, India inflation, and Singapore and Malaysia GDP

Scheduled key data releases for the coming week in Asia ex-Japan include July credit Yuting Yang | and inflation data in China, Singapore and Malaysia Q2 GDP, and inflation in India. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Below we summarize our forecasts and expectations for these releases. Hui Shan | Mainland China Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

n China inflation in July (August 9): We expect headline CPI to edge down to 0.9% yoy (-1.0% mom annualized; vs. Bloomberg consensus: 0.8% yoy) in July, vs. 1.0% yoy (-0.7% mom annualized) in June. Our tracking of high-frequency food prices suggests slightly higher food price inflation in year-over-year terms, mainly due to higher pork prices. But nonfood CPI inflation is likely to moderate in year-over-year terms, as suggested by PMI surveys. We expect PPI inflation to edge down to 4.0% yoy (vs. Bloomberg consensus: 3.8%) in July, vs. 4.1% yoy in June. Our forecast implies a sequential decline in PPI index on the back of lower energy prices, with month-over-month annualized PPI inflation of -2.5% vs +2.2% in June. n China money and credit in July (August 9-15) : We expect RMB loans to decline by RMB100bn in July, RMB50bn less than the new loan extension a year ago. Our forecast implies 5.2% yoy growth of outstanding RMB loans (4.9% mom annualized) vs. 5.2% yoy in June (3.6% mom annualized). Discount rates for commercial bills declined to a new low, suggesting weak corporate loan demand. That said, a surge in bill financing could potentially limit the downside of RMB loan decline. We expect TSF stock growth to stay roughly unchanged at 7.4% in July. The new TSF flows are likely to be RMB 1200bn, slightly higher than levels seen last July. This is mostly from higher government and corporate bond issuance in July compared with a year ago. We expect M2 growth to stay unchanged at 8.0% in July.

n India July CPI (August 12): We expect headline CPI inflation to edge up by 0.1pp to 4.5% yoy in July (Bloomberg consensus: 4.4% yoy). High-frequency food prices data are tracking sequentially higher across categories, implying a 0.2pp yoy increase in food inflation to 5.3% yoy (vs. June). Meanwhile, we expect core inflation to rise by 0.1pp to 4.3% yoy, mainly driven by a rise in core ex petrol, diesel, gold and silver (core ex PDGS) by 0.2pp to 2.7% yoy, reflecting some incremental price hikes by consumer staples, and clothing companies due to higher input costs.

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n Singapore final Q2 GDP (Aug 11): We expect Singapore’s final Q2 GDP growth to be revised up to 5.9% yoy, from the preliminary figure of 5.7% in the advance estimate. June data point to stronger activity than initially captured, with industrial production and construction expanding faster than preliminary figures suggested. Business credit growth also strengthened in Q2, supported by lending to businesses. Reflecting this stronger Q2 backdrop, we raise our 2026 full-year GDP growth slightly to 4.9% yoy, from 4.7% previously. n Malaysia final Q2 GDP (Aug 14): We expect Malaysia’s final Q2 GDP growth to be revised up to 5.9% yoy, from the preliminary figure of 5.8% yoy in the advance estimate. June indicators support this modest upgrade, with credit and export growth rising. However, weaker production momentum, especially in agricultural goods, likely tempered the overall increase. Given the modest increase in the Q2 data, we maintain our 2026 full-year GDP growth at 5.2% yoy.

Key data/events to watch outside the region include: CPI inflation and retail sales in the US, IP and Q2 GDP in Eurozone, and RBA meeting and Business confidence index in Australia.