Turkiye TCMB Reserves US$9bn Lower

Economics Research 21 September 2026 | 11:46AM BST

Turkiye: TCMB Reserves US$9bn Lower; Sharply Rising TRY Deposits Amid Volatility in MMFs

n As of 17 September, the TCMB’s gross reserves stood at US$180bn, down Clemens Grafe | US$9bn from a week earlier (-US$7bn excluding gold valuation) largely due to Goldman Sachs International net FX sales. Compared with pre-Iran-war levels, the TCMB’s reserves are down Basak Edizgil by US$36bn (-US$14bn excluding gold valuation effects), whereas the Bank’s FX | liquidity (defined as gross reserves excluding gold, assets held in non-SDR Goldman Sachs International

currencies and the SDR position at the IMF) is US$10bn lower. n In the week to 11 September, and on a valuation-adjusted basis, FX and gold deposits in the banking system both increased by around US$1bn. There were US$1.8bn outflows from money market funds during the same week, bringing the decline in money market funds in the first two weeks of September to around US$4bn. On the other hand, despite the decline in deposit rates, TRY deposits increased by US$12bn as of 15 September compared with a week ago, bringing the increase in these deposits through September to around US$20bn, suggesting that the funds leaving money markets are transferred into TRY deposits. Domestic NDFs (TRY-settled FX forwards) edged down this week and, overall, remain very small. n In the week to 11 September, banks’ off-balance-sheet FX position remained roughly stable at US$57bn, around US$1bn higher compared to pre-war levels. There were around US$0.2bn foreign inflows into both equity and local debt in the week to 11 September, which cumulatively show roughly US$3bn outflows since February (mostly out of local debt). But considering the inflows into TRY positions, we estimate total foreign inflows of around US$5bn since February. n In the week to 11 September, TRY deposit rates fell by 0.5pp to 43.9% (annl.), while consumer loan rates increased by 0.8pp to 61.7% (annl.) and commercial loan rates fell by 0.4pp to 53.6% (annl.). The deviation from the annualised policy rate (~45%) stands at roughly +17pp and +9pp for consumer and commercial loan rates, respectively, while deposit rates are slightly below the policy rate. n The TCMB’s total funding to banks increased by TRY38bn amid volatility in money market funds compared with a week ago to negative TRY948bn as of 17 September, suggesting continued excess liquidity in the system. As of 15 September, TRY loan growth fell by around 1pp from a week earlier to 36%mom (3mma, annl.), while FX loan growth was roughly stable at 12%mom (3mma, annl.). On an annual basis, total weighted credit expansion (TRY + FX) stands at 27%yoy, close to the trough in the middle of 2024. However, since the return to repo funding, our alternative quantity based financial conditions index has

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Exhibit 1: Breakdown of the TCMB’s reserves All values are in US$bn. Values in parentheses under gross FX assets represent changes excluding gold price movements. Gross FX assets include the TCMB’s sell-side swaps. Net FX assets exclude buy-side swaps with banks and those with other central banks. FX liquidity is calculated by subtracting gold, SDR position at IMF, FX assets in non-SDR currencies from gross FX assets and excludes sell-side swaps.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics

Exhibit 2: TCMB’s gross FX assets and FX liquidity FX liquidity is calculated by subtracting gold, SDR position at IMF, FX assets in non-SDR currencies

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics