Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO)

Equity Research 15 October 2026 | 4:04AM AEDT

Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AX): 3Q26 result: In-line result supported by strong performance at Oyu Tolgoi; Buy

RIO reported an in-line SepQ, with a resilient Pilbara performance and group CuEq Paul Young | production (+1% YoY) supported by the stronger than expected recoveries and Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi. Group copper production of 205kt came in-line with our Chris Bulgin estimates, with the Oyu Tolgoi beat (+14%/+17% vs. GSe/VA consensus) offsetting a | Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd weak quarter at both Kennecott (70 day furnace rebuild) and Escondida (weather). Global iron ore sales of 90.8Mt were up +3% YoY with Pilbara shipments of 85.7Mt, in-line with GSe, and Simandou achieving a ~10Mtpa (100%) annualised production run-rate in the quarter. All 2026 production, sales and unit cost guidance went unchanged, with lithium flagged at the lower end of the 61-64kt LCE range on a slower Sal de Vida ramp-up. RIO provided at a high level that it has achieved ~US$2bn in capital release YTD of the US$5bn expected this year, and management reiterated the US$1.8bn annualised productivity benefit run-rate target by end-2026.

Key 3Q26 takeaways: n Copper: Guidance of 800-870kt consolidated copper production maintained, and C1 net unit cost guidance of US30-50c/lb (GSe already at low end) was unchanged. o Oyu Tolgoi: production of 114kt was +27% YoY. The operation ran at a ~450ktpa annualised rate in the quarter, keeping the ramp-up on track for ~500ktpa (100%) from 2028-2036. The next planned open pit phases contain lower gold grades through the rest of 2026 and into 2027 following completion of a high gold-grade phase (we note this as a by-product credit headwind into 2027). On Entree, the Government of Mongolia agreed in June to commence work on resolution of the Panel 1 licence transfer; this remains in progress, with Panels 0 and 2 North (then 2 South) being advanced and Panel 1 now expected to be the final panel into production. o Kennecott: refined copper of 11.7kt was -10% YoY and -43% QoQ, reflecting the flash converting furnace outage. However, the rebuild was completed at end-August over ~70 days (vs the ~75 days guided in July) and the furnace has returned to normal capacity, with mined copper of 33.7kt up 67% QoQ on higher throughput, grades and recoveries. Matte accumulated ahead of the converter should convert to cathode and

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Goldman Sachs Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AX)

support 2027 cash flows. Geotechnical management in the open pit is ongoing. Management flagged molybdenum production falling through the rest of 2026 and into 2027 on mine sequencing (3Q Mo of 0.9kt was -31% YoY), partly offset by rising gold grades and recoveries. A seismic event occurred at the North Rim Skarn underground on 10 September, with the mine plan sequence and potential impacts under assessment following an external geotechnical review. o Escondida: Production was soft for the Q at 79kt, and mostly expected, due to severe weather, scheduled maintenance, a fatal incident, and lower feed grades (in line with mine sequence). Risk of industrial action could present some risk to Q4 production. n Iron ore: Global production of 89.7Mt was +2% YoY and global sales of 90.8Mt were +3% YoY, with sales guidance of 343-366Mt (100%) maintained. o Pilbara: shipments of 85.7Mt came in-line with our estimate, ahead of VA consensus. Management reiterated that port outload capacity will be impacted during some quarters in 2027 and 2028 with major capital projects underway (including Parker Point reclaimers) to improve system flexibility ahead of Rhodes Ridge, consistent with our…