Americas Brokers & Crypto Key takeaways post earnings CRCL & GLXY

Equity Research 5 August 2026 | 6:45PM EDT

Key takeaways post earnings: CRCL & GLXY

We highlight updated views on CRCL & GLXY post 2Q26 earnings, key takeaways James Yaro | from results, and update our estimates. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Further details within. Divyam Harlalka | Goldman Sachs India SPL

CRCL: Ongoing investment momentum, Full year guide lowered modestly as Matthew Weng | the company invests in growing Arc Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Lokesh Kumar Sangewar | CRCL reported 2Q26 EPS of 18¢, above Visible Alpha Consensus Data estimate of Goldman Sachs India SPL

17¢1, and core EPS of 30¢2, vs. GSe/consensus like estimates of 29¢3, and adj. Thirukumaran R | EBITDA (ex. SBC) of $143mn vs. GSe/Street of $144mn/$142mn. In our view, the Goldman Sachs India SPL largely unchanged stock reaction on the day of earnings reflects constructive momentum around investments and the Arc token, vs. the fact that the guidance included a modest core (ex. the Arc token gains) guide down on pre-tax earnings of ~$27.5mn, or -6% vs. our pre-earnings 2026E adjusted pre-tax income, given lower core other revenue, and higher adj. expenses. CRCL reiterated its guide for a 40% multi-year through the cycle USDC CAGR. It reiterated its $570-585mn of FY26 adjusted operating expenses, but noted that expenses will likely be at the high end of this range. It increased two guides, driven by the inclusion of $180mn of Arc token presale revenue: 1) FY26 other revenue of $310-330mn, vs. prior guidance of $150-170mn; and 2) a FY26 net revenue (RLDC) margin of 41.7%-43.7%, vs. prior guidance of 38-40%. However, on a core basis, excluding the impact of the Arc revenue, this implies: 1) lower FY26 core other revenue of $130-150mn (vs. $150-180mn previously); and 2) a core net revenue margin (which the company terms RLDC margin) of ~39%, in the middle of the 38-40% range. The company also highlighted progress on Arc, announcing on the same day as earnings that the Arc mainnet will go live on September 16th, including key partners, e.g.,

1 Note: We calculate consensus EPS from consensus PnL components, vs. pulling consensus EPS estimate directly from data provider and assume consensus change in fair value of warrant liability equal to GSe. 2 Note: Adjusting for below the line items, FV gain on convertible debt, warrant liability, embedded derivatives, and UST, excluding SBC, and normalizing the tax rate. 3 Note: excluding SBC, normalizing for FV gain on convertible debt, warrant liability, embedded derivatives, and UST, normalizing tax rate

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Goldman Sachs Americas Brokers & Crypto

BlackRock, DTCC, Galaxy, Global Payments, ICE, Mastercard, MoneyGram, SBI Group, Standard Chartered, Sumitomo, and Visa. Finally, the company highlighted that there will be an impact on its RLDC margin from the new Hyperliquid partnership, noting that ~$3.7bn of USDC was on Hyperliquid when the new partnership with COIN and CRCL was signed, and that ~90% of this has moved onto COIN’s platform - given that Hyperliquid’s USDC was previously unincentivized, meaning that economics were shared 50/50 across COIN/CRCL, by moving onto COIN’s platform, this represents a hit to CRCL’s net revenue - we estimate the annual impact to be ~$68.5mn of net revenue, or ~9% of 2027E adjusted pre-tax profit.

1. Resilient USDC circulation despite broader crypto market weakness: The company highlighted the decoupling of USDC market cap (up 12% YoY), vs. crypto market cap (down 42% YoY), driven by an increase in non-crypto market adoption. Notably, USDC reached a record ~70% share in stablecoin transaction volume in June, up from 36% in 2Q25. 2. Arc mainnet launch, with diverse potential…