Americas Energy Oil Refining SRE Decisions Expected by End of August

Equity Research 21 August 2026 | 8:17PM EDT

AMERICAS ENERGY: OIL - REFINING

SRE Decisions Expected by End of August; Key Catalyst for DK

This morning, the EPA announced its decision to extend the 2025 RVO deadline Alexa Petrick Breno | (previously Sept 1.) and aims to rule on pending SRE requests by the end of August. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

We view this as a particularly positive catalyst for DK where we see potential for the Neil Mehta | associated cash inflow to represent over 20% of the market cap. We also highlight Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC PARR and DINO as beneficiaries of the exemptions, and see potential for this to Josiah Knight | reduce CVI’s RVO liability. Inside, we detail our estimates for DK and PARR associated Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC SRE cash flow. Lydia Gould | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

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Goldman Sachs Americas Energy: Oil - Refining

Exhibit 1: DK: When assuming full exemptions, we see Exhibit 2: PARR: When assuming full exemptions, we see potential for 2025 SREs to drive cash flow equivalent to potential for 2025 SREs to drive cash flow equivalent to over 20% of market cap over 7% of market cap Estimated SRE cash flow ($ mn) at varying RIN prices and Estimated SRE cash flow ($ mn) at varying RIN prices and exemption % exemption %

$1,400 28% 30% $400 10% 9% $350 9% $1,200 25% 23% 8% $300 7% $1,000 7% 20% 17% $250 5% 6% $800 15% $200 5% $600 $150 4% 10% $400 3% $100 2% $200 5% $50 1% $0 0% $0 0% $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50

50% 75% 100% % of Market Cap 50% 75% 100% % of Market Cap

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Key catalysts we’re monitoring.

We look for an updated 2025 RVO deadline to be announced from the EPA, where we note the deadline was set for September 1. In addition, we expect small refinery exemption rulings to be made by the end of August and look to the EPA for the pending waivers. We see potential for the SREs to drive significant value for eligible refiners, particularly DK. In addition to 2025 small refinery exemptions, we note ongoing litigation around 2019-2022 SREs where the RINs received for those years are, as of now, essentially unable to be monetized. While we do not underwrite any value associated with these ‘zombie’ RINs given our view that it could take multiple years of further litigation, we highlight potential for it to drive incremental value.

We are Buy rated on DK and our 6-month price target (SOTP based 85%, M&A 15%) is $83. For the M&A value, we apply a $1/bbl higher crack spread in our model, consistent with the methodology across our broader coverage. Key risks relate to refining margins, operational execution, and capital allocation.

We are Buy rated on PARR, and our 6-month SOTP-based price target is $90 and reflects our updated estimates. Key risks relate to refining margins, retail earnings, and operational execution.